08-F-1338 RTI-IRI Northern Focus Groups

040126-13 - LOTSSE RTI/IRI NORTHERN FOCUS GROUPS Contact: Steven Moore, IR smoore@iri.or Gurbux Singh, RT gsingh01@lgp-iraq.or Background groups, conducted in December. This report reports on groups conducted in Mosul, Erbil and Sulaymania, from January 8 through January 13, 2004, plus an extra, unrequested session conducted in Basrah afte two days after the December 29 Basrah town hall meeting Methodology This series of groups has drastically decreased bias associated with the groups being connected with Americans or CPA. The groups were conducted in a university setting with only Iraqi staff using the name of the Independent Institute for Administrative and Civil Society Studies (IIACCS), a new public opinion research firm in Baghdad with which IRI works. IRi expatriate staff reviewed video tapes of the groups taped on mall security type camera at IRI offices in Baghdad and discussed the findings at length Even without Americans present, suspicious Iraqis accused the moderators of being CIA and in league with other various organizations. The anti-American bias was much more pronounced in the southern focus groups. Recruitment remains the most challenging aspect of this type of project. IIACCS recruited some of the participants in some cities, while IRI local staff recruited participants in other cities. Participants were paid 25,000 dinar for their participation, but IRI local staff found that providing recruits the opportunity to have their opinion heard was a superior recruiting technique. That being said, difficulties associated with recruiting created a bias toward educated (particularly academic) Iraqis who are more affluent than average. While not very representative of the population at large, the participants are opinion leaders, whose provide valuable information. IRI moderators have increased in skill level over the last six weeks. Rather than asking Preliminary Draft - For Discussion Purposes Only Key Findings The main problem with the agreement is not that Iraqis do not like the agreemen Quite the contrary. Most groups were quite happy with the prospect of th agreement, but virtually none of the groups believed it would happen. < • The antidote to Iraqi disbelief is action by the CPA. Specifically, the Iraqis nee o believe that the security situation is improving. However, any promise by th CPA that is kept will likely have a positive result. • The word "respect" in referring to the Islamic majority in Iraq tends to annoy Arabs. They react to it like it is condescending. Freud of ansh rig fro exis fe is io nate i very match less important to • Arabs tend to feel that freedom of press and freedom of expression will increase civil strife by people publishing newspapers and sniping at rival groups. This is not just felt between Sunni and Shiia, but as well (perhaps more) between Shiia factions. Even in the Kurdish north, where the largest reservoir of goodwill toward th oalition remains, there is little faith in the ability of the Coalition to provide fo the rights of Kurds in the transition process. • Similarly, Arabs are citing the UN as an objective arbitrator for the handover of sovereignty. • In terms of timespan waiting for the elections to come, the Kurds think it is too . short, and the Basrahns think it is too long. • The cures o netire the men and relati liKe seria. they are unsure ars of the Kurdish people should cast their lot in an election that is dominated demographically by Arabs. • Without strict direction by IRI moderators, the answer to every question in Arab cities is "security." Similarly, in Kurdish cities, the answer to every question is "Kurdish autonomy" or "Federalism." • In about to seelf he go main on they and out, people isted an 2 Preliminary Draft - For Discussion Purposes Only groups would place responsibility for security on the iraqi people themselves, Curios rather than point to the Coalition as failing to provide security. • As with the December groups, the Iraqi police are seen as ineffective, corruptible and poorly trained • All groups were concerned about what should happen if a substantial number of Iraqis do not approve the constitution in the referendum. One woman was worried about a number as low as 1% rejecting the constitution. • Many of the opinion leaders feared that the less educated people would waste their vote because they would associate the referendum with the Saddam referendums, where the outcome was pre-ordained. • The Kurds in particular feared that the southern masses would swayed to vote in a particular way by just a few religious leaders. allys ansaris ach question, wit tide it thoms which the information came noted. Questions from the discussion guide are bolded, while participant quotes are italicized. On 15 Nov the CPA announced that political authority would be transferred to the Iraqi government. Were you aware of this decision? In general, the northern cities were much less aware and much less educated on the agreement. "Why has the media not told us about these agreements?" -- 24 year old female student from Sulaymania These groups were conducted prior to the town hall meeting in Mosul, which could be a contributing factor. Additionally, IRI found that education efforts by non-CPA organizations were stronger in the south. How did you find out? tellite I V, specifically Al-Jazeera, was the most frequently mentioned source of new owever, focus groups cannot measure penetration of message, and this information alid only for the people in the groups. Note that these groups skew educated an ffluent, which are the group of people most likely to have access to satellite TV Note as dell ing popon the groups pie say that that T hold take a precater 3 Preliminary Draft - For Discussion Purposes Only vere worried that the lesser educated Iraqis would cast an uninformed vote, or woul rote by the order of their cleric. Many suggested a television campaign as an effectiv way to educate the masses. them, rather than watching some television sit-com. programmer from Basrah What were your feelings upon hearing of this decision? I am afraid that the authority will be held by an Arab so that there will be no difference than the last regime. - 24 year old female student in Erbil Do you believe it? In general, the feelings of northern Iraqis mirror our findings throughout Iraq. People want to believe the agreement, but are reluctant to do so. I am optimistic about the prospect of power being transferred to the Iraqis, but I don't trust that it will happen - 21 year old female law student in Erbil What makes it believable/unbelievable to you? We don't know if the GC knows about it or not! Why did they not talk about it for a month after they wrote it? - 43 year old male political science professor in Erbil Now I'm going to give you an overview of the agreement. <distribute agreement> may not be very clear to the least educated Iraqis. <Take agreement back up> What is your first impression of the agreement? Do you believe it? he problem with the agreement is not in whether the Iraqis like it — it is in whether the elieve it will happen. The focus groups did not reveal any correlation betwee knowledge of the agreement and believability of the agreement. 4 Preliminary Draft - For Discussion Purposes Only "I believe in it, but it is not easy to make real. I wish it were more than just ink on paper." - 25 year old woman in Mosul In general, people are waiting for some application or external event to validate the agreement. "I will believe it if the Americans leave, and that is impossible." - 36 year old male education administrator from Mosul In central and southern Iraq the answer to every question, regardless of the question, is "security." In northern Iraq, security is an issue as well, but the answer to every question is "What about the Kurds?" "The paper we read is obscure and foggy and needs a lot of clarification in order for it to be understandable for the simple people and even for us. The Kurdish issue hasn't been mentioned in any way." - 24 year old female student in Sulaymania governing system given to the Kurds. over system aven to the arts meir right to be a piese ed he fore we a g th constitution.'-35 year old woman with a bachelor's degree from Erbil Let's take some of the specific parts of the agreement and put them on the white board. What questions do you have about this? What questions do you think that cleaning people and taxi drivers might have about What fears and concerns do you think people will have about this part of the agreement? robe: do you think that Iraqis are worried that their basic rights will suffer unde his agreement 5 Preliminary Draft - For Discussion Purposes Only prote virads you think about ate overin cause he tan thie? who shity? Probably most surprising about this part of the agreement from a Western perspective is the undercurrent of fear of freedom of speech and freedom of the press in the focus groups. The freedom of speech... what if that speech wasn't right and critical toward certair ssues? I think the freedom of speech thing is an over-rated thing: - 37 year old mal health worker in Mosul "Is the freedom of press when everyone will say the thing that they want?" - 42 year old female physician in Mosul "The Iragi people need the freedom, but there must be control of it." - 26 year old female BA in French arts in Mosul discriminated against in general. "Why mention this obscure right about the media?" - 30 year old female pharmacologist in Sulaymania with agreement from most of the group "What about the rights of the Kurdish people?" - 3 male teachers in their early twenties in Erbil just the rights of the media. he he reme should ree the fred are senses of the dia maple, not Even in post-town hall meeting Basrah, the women's group felt that freedom of the pres and freedom of speech would exacerbate ethnic and religious differences and might leac "We are in a critical condition. There is no benefit from the freedom of expression since it will create a civil war. There should be limitations to prevent mistakes." - 28 year old female computer programmer from Basrah "People from different religions will start newspapers on their own and start trouble." - 65 year old female professor in Basrah 6 Preliminary Draft - For Discussion Purposes Only The Transitional Administrative Law will respect the Islamic identity of the majority of the Iraqi people, while providing guarantees of religious freedom for all Iraqis. What questions do you have about this? What questions do you think that cleaning people and taxi drivers might have about What fears and concerns do you think people will have about this part of the agreement? The similarities in response of the groups on this subject breaks down between the Kurdish cities and Basrah/Mosul. Three of the four groups in Basrah and Mosul (the exception being the Mosul women) took exception to the word "respect" in this part of the agreement. The reaction was marting ly pro fore i campus ossy as ehe the arene indoned is aider difference between Islamic passions in Mosul and Basrah. undation of r condescending. "If this part will give all the religions their freedom, there will be a fragmentation between the Iraqis." - 19 year old female student in Basrah "I am provoked by the word 'respect.' Why don't they just confess that Islam is the religion of this country?" - 31 year old male with a post-graduate education in Basrah 7 Preliminary Draft - For Discussion Purposes Only What do they mean by respect the Islamic identity.. What do they mean by respect he islande dentit want they mesanny respecting the law of Iraq." - 61 year old male retired teacher in Mosul Instead of respect it would be better to say guarantee the protection of the othe x-military officer in Most religions."-62 year old male especting the other religions. -49 The have to change this ians and write bat the foreal religion in rea is the issame he Kurdish groups were on the whole more interested in the rights of minorities erhaps since they are a minority themselves, although Islamic pride did play significant role in the groups. I prefer that Iraq be liberal country with respect to all religions. - 23 year old male administrator in Erbil, 23 year old male teacher in Erbil and 43 year old political science professor Being Kurds we feel that there is no need for this section, for we are not racist, unlike the rab who always tried to control the minorities and religiously differentiate betwe inni and Shiite, Christianity and Islam. - 23 vear old female law stude Other group members pointed out the hypocrisy of the racist nature of this statement, but the fear of more abuse at the hands of the Arabs seems to be present in all of our Kurdist focus groups. Here in Sulaymania we don't discriminate basing on religion. We can say our society live in a harmony, so this item will not provoke any question. - 56 year old female professor, with agreement from the group Both groups in Erbil said they thought mentioned in the basis. the an assum the spees is indicative oe line kusionde ire to have their rights mentioned in the basic law, and a willingness to coalesce with other The agreement should contain something to explain the freedom of all religions. - Erbil male 21 year old college student I want the rights of each religion to be equally represented in the constitution - 42 year old female high school educated employee in Erbil Every religion has it own ideas, so it would be better if these ideas are mentioned in th lew constitution. - 30 year old female civil servant in Erbi 8 Preliminary Draft - For Discussion Purposes Only asrah women have fear of control by outside groups, and use it as an excuse to b oncerned about allowing too much religious freedon Sure the people will have fears and concerns about (this section of the agreement). The law has to determine the type of religion and the type of freedom. For other religions they can publish a newspaper or a magazine, they can enjoy their holy days but without affecting the Muslims, - 22 year old female researcher in Basrah Other people from outside Iraq are trying to make a problem here; the Jewish, the Wahabi. -- 39 year old female university professor in Basrah Based on the Transitional Administrative Law, by May 31, 2004, local caucuses will be convened in each of Iraq's 18 governorates to elect delegates from among their number for an Iraqi Transitional National Assembly. What questions do you have about this? What questions do you think that cleaning people and taxi drivers might have about probe: do you think that people understand what a caucus is? What do you think the difference is between a caucus and an election? What fears and concerns do you think people will have about this part of the agreement? were concerned about the instability that might come about during a transitional period. The caucuses caused concern among women in Erbil. he will manage this process the eleen of the repes neive shink this year che woman from Sulaymania with a post-graduate education As we have seen all over Iraq, security remains a major issue. How can hold an elective queen rein me uTer a bad security condition? - 28 year 9 Preliminary Draft - For Discussion Purposes Only (in agreement) We want active steps to afford security than we should move to the elective convention. - 28 year old female in Erbil In Basrah, even well educated male participants are looking toward outside validation for the caucus - clerics and the United Nations. This part is clear for us but we depend on our clerics who have notes about this part.— 46 year old male PhD in Basrah We san he an eches vise as dha mee ion becare it represents an independent By March 15, 2005 direct, one-man, one-vote elections will be held for a constitutional convention. This convention will meet to write a permanent constitution. What questions do you have about this? What questions do you think that cleaning people and taxi drivers might have about What fears and concerns do you think people will have about this part of the agreement? Probe: Do you think Iraqis will wait until this long for an election? This section provokes numerous questions, detailed in the Questions attachment to this document. There is as are conlins beat to the north and sues in termans the length ery quickly. while the north prefers to wait as long as possible. The female group in Sulaymania all felt that waiting for a constitution was OK, and that the Kurds would wait as long as it took to assure Kurdish rights in the constitution. This was echoed in Erbil. We don't care if the constitution is civilian; we just care about the federal point - 28 year old male law researcher from Erbil Many of them are concerned that the vote of the lesser educated masses will be 10 Preliminary Draft - For Discussion Purposes Only Le oiled by text a fee mule. comments from Basran abouths neit dicipant following the will of the clerics in choosing a leader. school education, 50 years old in Mosul While the dependence upon the opinions of clerics in the south, the northern Iraqis are much less reliant on the opinions of their religious leaders. "As a citizen I can freely elect the person who will represent me, not depending only on the clerics. We can elect the person who will serve our country and people." - 53 year old male doctor of physics in Basrah a face, hile the oppres erdy shoe, an ure are quif come for the shia ving: their own fate up to the southern masses. Poople shout nator chetchra year ate walian one in therefer posteridorder regions), if they chose Federalism at all. Sor member of the al gre in rail were quite kins abou geting bao to The Sulaymania women's group thought that the whole process is complicated and even the term (constitution) is too obscure for the simple people to understand. Most participants in Basrah's female focus group felt that the USA was benefiting from the (in their view) long period of time before the elections. "I think the reason that it is taking a long time because they are writing the constitution in the United States and will send it here." - 28 year old female computer programmer from Basrah This is a joke, but it was agreed to by everyone. 11 Preliminary Draft - For Discussion Purposes Only phony elections of the former regime. Many ef elops i inents ether less tea thira is ill se people referent vote, with the not mark their ballots in an informed fashion. "The Iraqi people used to try many referendums (under the former regime) but never people know about referendums. college professor from Basrah The Kurds are proud of their last 12 years of democracy, and are reluctant to give up their already functioning government to become part of the rest of Iraq's instability. e want Federalism, but the kind of this federalism is still unclear. Here in Kurdistan v have a constitution approved by our parliament. •not in the new general constitution? - male PhD from Sula that? Will it be considere heir concerns are likely valid. One of the more educated male members of the Basra ocus group provided a structure into which he classified Basrahns man with a masters in Arabic literature While there is much confusion surrounding the constitutional drafting process, at least one of the group members was anxious to participate. inseman meeta winted, es that mean? at does a perso need to do to nominate After the constitution is drafted, it will be approved by the Iraqi people in a referendum. What questions do you have about this? What questions do you think that cleaning people and taxi drivers might have about probe: do you think that people understand what a refer endum is? agreements and concerns do you think people will have about this part of the 12 Preliminary Draft - For Discussion Purposes Only The entire men's group in Sulaymania was concerned about the referendum, and how it might impact Kurdish rights. All the groups showed concern about what might happen if substantial (or less substantial) portions of the Iraqi electorate did not vote for the constitution. f the Iraqi people didn't approve the constitution, what will happen then? Even if 1% efuses it, that 1% is not a small ratio. What can we do then? - 39 year old femal college professor in Basrah While no group came out and said that less than unanimous acceptance of the constitution would cause civil strife, that was implied. Many groups have concerns about the "all or nothing" nature of a referendum, and propose a "line item" vote. Some group members felt that the process excluded them, and that they didn't have much of a choice in the matter should the Iraqis desire independence. "We must accept the constitution even if we don't like it. If we don't vote for it, then we will not have independence, so we must vote for it!" - 19 year old female college student from Basrah By December 31, 2005, national elections for a new Iraqi government will be held based on the new constitution. The elected government will assume ower. The transitional government will be dissolved. What questions do you have about this? What questions do you think that cleaning people and taxi drivers might have about What fears and concerns do you think people will have about this part of the agreement? There is a conflict in public opinion regarding the shame of being protected by oreigners versus the need for a well-trained, well-equipped force to keep security in Irac This need for the CF to keep security was well-documented in December's groups "The for pree an ease hers rote of by fortie es. Tea old gence otese professor in Basrah 13 Preliminary Draft - For Discussion Purposes Only The perin distoo short; one year is not enough to make election - 51 year old sociology ven in Kurdistan, where our moderators saw more of a reserve of US sympathy that nywhere else we have conducted groups. there is pessimism about the US conductins the election. If the US going to supervise the elections, our rights will be lost. - 18 year old female high school student in Erbil coalition forces; they will not preserve the rights of the Kurdish people. I'm afraid if the same people ruling now will remain in power, I mean the 4) wear old college educated male from Sulaymania & 52 year old high school educated male from Sulaymania Throughout this process, Coalition Forces will continue to work side-by- side with new Iraqi police and security institutions to ensure a peaceful transition to a sovereign, democratic, secure Iraq. What questions do you have about this? What questions do you think that cleaning people and taxi drivers might have about What fears and concerns do you think people will have about this part of the agreement? People in many groups had concerns about just what the role of the CF might be, and low the Iragis might have sovereignty if the CF remained ransferring authority. "Keeping security is the work of the Iragi people without depending on the CPA." - 22 year old male pharmacy student in Basrah This is in keeping with the small strain of self-reliance in the focus groups. In many roups, one or two people talk about self-reliance of the Iraqi people in the matter o ecurity. This vein of public opinion could be tapped through a public educatio campaign on how Iraqis can participate in their own security. In a couple of the groups, some of the members showed disdain for the new Iraqi police uniforms, which remind them of the US uniforms. 14 Preliminary Draft - For Discussion Purposes Only not a realistic thing because police now can't keep security When I see police with their new uniform, it is not respectful. " 31 year old Basrah male with a masters in Arab literature The sense that the CF only protect themselves was prevalent in December's focus groups in the south, and showed itself in an undercurrent in this set of groups. The Americans aren't supporting the IPF unless it is for their own protection. Since the previous Iraqi army is involved in war crimes and it won't be able to come back, people will think it is better to provide the IPF with advanced weapons and equipment. -- male accountant, high school education, 50 years old in Mosul "Most of the police are kids only working for salaries. experience with the police. is on were male his ever is in osa marry him if he holds a rank below lieutenant. However, this is indicative of the desire for alternatives to the current security situation. groups throughout Iraq. as the shouty a staricia are event to bric. Ta sing was found i security is still a problem. zy opinion, if they couldn'1 us? - 28 year old female computer programmer from Basrah QUESTIONS Following are questions that Iraqis had about the process, reported by city. Erbil men Where is the right of the Kurdish people? There are eighteen governorates, so where is the right of the Kurdish people? Why do we need this transitional period? Is the constitution is coming from the election or vise versa? Erbil women 15 Preliminary Draft - For Discussion Purposes Only • Why should the GC write the law, why not the university masters from different nationalities and sects? •The elective conventio • Shall we have an elected representative or appointed one? • Shall we elect a representative or we vote on an appointed one (referendum)? • We want to know the specifications of the new constitution, is it federal democratic or not? • Are the people going to write the constitution, or elect people write the constitution? • What do they mean by the respect of the Islamic religion are they talking about secularism or it's going to be an Islamic republic? • The transitional government, how it's going to be, which political parties will participate? • Why did they mention the freedom of speech and press and they didn't mention the freedom of the political parties? • What are the caucuses? are they representing parties, unions, associations? • One-man, one vote? What does the person need to nominate himself? Who is going to write the constitution,? And how many votes are required so the person can join the writing of the constitution? • The people who will write the constitution, are they appointed or elected? • In case there are points in the constitution against our habits and principles and morals what can we do with that? • What they mean by the government, will there be a President or a prime minister? • Will be there a paper with the names of the nominated people in it? • What are the security institutions, why we should wait so long to have security, it's a must for all people to know that all what we care about now is the security, where are the police forces, why didn't they arrange for that since the beginning? • If the IGC and the CPA will dissolve, why are they going to arrange the security issue? • What is the meaning by the dissolve of the CPA? • Why don't they start early with the security problem? Mosul Women What if a ratio of the Iraqi people refuse the constitution? What will happen? • Tie people from there cutorah eve, flee people i Participa, in the writers of the constitution? 16 Preliminary Draft - For Discussion Purposes Only Sulaymania men • wondering about the date specifically. What is the mechanism of choosing the date? I wonder about who has the authority to sign this agreement with the CPA? A ley the same persons who are announced by the CPA themselves? & do the know about this agreement or not? • I am wondering about the Kurdish people why they would accept this unclear cloudy agreement? without the existence of the legislative authority? There are no explanations for the future election system? • There will be eighteen representatives are they the candidates for the presidency? - On which basis the candidates will participate in the presidency elections? Depending on their relations with the political parties? Or basing on their ethnic background? • What's the purpose behind this? What they are waiting for to explain the agreement to the Iraqi people? • If it is going to be religious ruling, is the president going to be Shiite, Sunni, Arabic or Kurdish? • What are the bases of candidacy? Are they going to enter themselves or they are going to chosen by The GC or the coalition Forces? • What is the role of the constitutional committee? How many persons will compose it? And whom they will represent? • How many Kurdish representatives are going to be in this committee? • Do the elected persons will have legal and political experience? • Are the educational and the intellectual going to be conditions to choose the • If some of the elected persons are not Kurds, are they going to neglect the Kurdish rights? • What do you mean by new police? You mean they will replace the existing police force that worked during Saddam's era? Basrah Men 17 Preliminary Draft - For Discussion Purposes Only Why is it a transitional • How is it beans supervisor of the election and writing ent constitution? • Now how long that we need to write a permanent constitution for our country? Where is Iraq state? It is Islamic country depend on Islam in each field of life • Do we have a permanent constitution in Iraq? Can the GC establish a committec to write the constitution? • Do you want the occupation forces to put the constitution for us? • We need the end of the occupation, when does it end? Basrah Women Where will the members of the IGC after the IGC will be released Regarding the caucuses - it's understood. but I'm I going to select who is going t represent me, or other people will perform that? 18