Telegram 337 iraqrep to fco iraq six final months of occupation

Cc: MODUK MODUK NAVY MODUK AIR MODUK ARMY Info: BRITISH OFFICE BAGHDAD CPA BASRA UKDEL NATO SUBJECT: SUBJECT/NOSEC/IRAQ/SIX/FINAL/MONTHS/OF/OCCUP FM IRAQREP TO IMMEDIATE FCO TELNO 337 OF 011657Z JANUARY 04 INFO IMMEDIATE BRITISH OFFICE BAGHDAD, CABINET OFFICE INFO IMMEDIATE CANBERRA, CPA BASRA, DEFENCE COMMEN LONDON, DFID INFO IMMEDIATE DTI, MADRID, MIDDLE EAST POSTS INFO IMMEDIATE MODUK/MODUK NAVY/MODUK AIR/MODUK ARMY/MODUK PE INFO IMMEDIATE ROME, SECURITY COUNCIL POSTS INFO IMMEDIATE UKDEL NATO, UKREP BRUSSELS, WARSAW, SIC SUBJECT: NOSEC: IRAQ: SIX FINAL MONTHS OF OCCUPATION SUMMARY 1. THE CPA HAS SIX MONTHS TO RUN. BY 30 JUNE, WE HAVE TO HAVE IN PLACE: AN ASSEMBLY AND GOVERNMENT REGARDED INTERNALLY AND INTERNATIONALLY AS LEGITIMATE AND CREDIBLE= A SECURITY STRUCTURE WHICH IS IN CONTROL BUT NOT A CONTINUATION OF THE OCCUPATION= AN IMPROVING ECONOMY OFFERING THE PROSPECT OF A NORMAL LIFE TO THE MAJORITY OF IRAQIS= A WILLING COMMITMENT TO THE PROCESS FROM ALL THE MAIN COMMUNITIES OF IRAQ= AND UN SECURITY COUNCIL ENDORSEMENT OF THE ABOVE 2. IT WOULD BE AS WELL TO HAVE A CLEAR SENSE AT THE START OF THE Time Sent. 011717ZJAN04 ACP127 Identifier RBDWDFA 1049 3651535 MM Identifier DD.acp-plad=IRAOREP/DD acr I = MODMAIN O= HO- 3. THE COALITION IN IRAQ ENDS 2003 HAVING WEATHERED EVERYTHING SO FAR THROWN AT IT AND WITH SADDAM IN CAPTIVITY. BUT MERELY SURVIVING THE NEXT SIX MONTHS IS NOT ENOUGH. WE MUST NOW PLAN TO ENSURE, FROM OUR CURRENT POSITION OF AHEAD ON POINTS, THAT THE IRAQ WE BEQUEATH ON 1 JULY CAN STAND ON ITS OWN FEET AND DEVELOP AS A SUCCESS IN ITS REGION 4. IT DOES NO HARM TO LIST THE PRINCIPAL HURDLES IN FRONT OF US: (1) THE VIOLENT OPPOSITION HAVE CAPACITY, PEOPLE AND MATERIALS IN INERADICABLE QUANTITIES FOR THIS TIMESCALE, EVEN IF THEIR STRATEGIC REACH IS LIMITED= (Il) THERE IS NO SIGN OF A CREDIBLE POLITICAL LEADERSHIP FOR A UNITED IRAQ, NOR OF A TRUE COMMAND CAPABILITY IN THE NASCENT SECURITY FORCES= (lI) DONOR MONEY, INCLUDING US MONEY, IS FLOWING IN VERY SLOWLY= (IV) THE DETAILED POLITICAL PROCESS IS NOT AGREED AND SUSPICION BETWEEN THE MAJOR COMMUNITIES IS HIGH= (V) ESSENTIAL UTILITIES AND SERVICES ARE BEHIND TARGET, AND THE SHORTAGES ARE LOSING US IMPORTANT SUPPORT AND CONSENT= (VI) THE EMPLOYMENT RATE IS CLOSE TO 50- AND JOB CREATION HAS FAILED TO TAKE OFF= (VII) THE NEIGHBOURS ARE UNFRIENDLY AND INTERNATIONAL HELP MODEST - WE HAVE TO DO THIS LARGELY AS US/UK= (VIII) WE ONLY HAVE SIX MONTHS. 5. OK, WE ARE STILL ON THE ROAD. THE MILITARY HAVE HAD A GOOD FEW WEEKS. WE HAVE LEARNT TO ABSORB REGULAR LOSSES. THERE IS NO POLITICAL OPPOSITION OF ANY ORGANISED STRENGTH. THE NEW CURRENCY IS APPRECIATING. MANY IRAQIS SENSE THE UNIQUE OPPORTUNITY. WE HAVE A PLATFORM FOR EVENTUAL SUCCESS HERE 6. THAT IS THE POINT OF THIS TELEGRAM. THIS IS A NASTY ENVIRONMENT. WE ARE FUNDAMENTALLY UNPOPULAR. BECAUSE THE CPAS Time Sent. 011717ZJAN04 ACP127 Identifier RBDWDFA 1049 3651535 MM Identifier DD.acp-plad=IRAQREP/DD.acp-ri=RBDWDFA/CN=IRAOREP/OU2=OUA/OUI=MODMAIN/O=HỌ: AMRAD/P=MODUK-AMRAD/A= /C=GB/@2018 040101172018Z DECLASSIFIED CONCENT THE TO NO MEANT MEN DON ON DURING THE TWELVE MONTHS OF 2004. I GATHERED FROM MY DECEMBER CONTACTS WITH MODUK THAT THIS IS UNDERSTOOD. I HOPE THAT THE SAME IS TRUE IN WASHINGTON, BUT IT IS HARD TO PICK UP THERE THE SAME SENSE OF STEADY PURPOSE. THIS THEATRE REMAINS A SECURITY CRISIS. OUR PEOPLE NEED PROTECTION 8. SECOND, IT IS UNWISE TO HOLD BACK DONOR FUNDING FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE YEAR IF WE NEED TO SPEND HARD JUST TO REACH JULY. BREMER NEEDS HELP IN GETTING THIS ACROSS IN WASHINGTON. 9. THIRD, THE CPA CAN NO LONGER AFFORD TO SHAPE ITSELF AS A BRILLIANT COWBOY OPERATION. HARD, COMPLEX, MANPOWER-INTENSIVE DECISIONS ARE NEEDED FROM NOW ON. LONDON CANNOT AFFORD THE LUXURY OF MANPOWER CEILINGS: DEPLOYMENT DECISIONS MUST BE TASK-DRIVEN CORNERS MUST BE CUT AND BANKS BORROWED FROM. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ORGANISATION OF THE POLITICAL PROCESS NEEDS A CPA TEAM IN EVERY PROVINCE. WE NEED ARABISTS AND RESOURCEFUL INDIVIDUALS. I RECOMMEND THE TEMPORARY LOAN OF AN ARABIC-SPEAKER FROM MOST OF OUR ARAB WORLD EMBASSIES. 10. THEN THERE IS ACTUAL POLICY, WE HAVE TO CAPITALISE ON SADDAMS CAPTURE, RAISE THE COSTS OF CONTINUED RESISTANCE AND DOUBLE THE CARROTS FOR THOSE WHO COME OVER. CJTF-7 HAVE DEVISED SOME RECOMMENDATIONS IN THIS VEIN, COPIED TO IPU. + RECONCILIATION+ IS TOO COSY AND UN-ISLAMIC A TERM FOR IT, BUT JUSTICE AND A NEW START MUST BE INVESTED IN. COMPROMISES AT THE RIGHT MOMENT, EG TO GET ROUND THE SISTANI PROBLEM, CAN BE A STRENGTH, NOT A WEAKNESS. 11. IN SHORT, THIS THING IS POISED. THERE IS SO MUCH AT STAKE THAT WE NEED TO PULL THE ODDS JUST A BIT FURTHER OUR WAY. AND AGREE THAT WITH THE AMERICANS GREENSTOCK Time Sent: 011717ZJAN04 ACP 127 Identifier RBDWDFA 1049 3651535 MM Identifier DD acp-plad=|RAOREP DD.acp AMRAD P=MODUK-AMRAD A DECLASSIEIED