Telegram 175 iraqrep to fco london iraq political process

MENAD From: Sent: Saturday, September 20, 2003 10:35:46 AM MENAD - All Staff TO: Subject: FW: INFO: 00 IRAQR/FCOLN 175: NOSEC: IRAQ: POLITICAL PROCESS Auto forwarded by a Rule From: Swift Incoming Telegrams (Machine 2) Sent: Saturday, September 20, 2003 10:35:46 AM To: MENAD INFO: 00 IRAQR/FCOLN 175: NOSEC: IRAQ: POLITICAL PROCESS Subject: Auto forwarded by a Rule ZCZC MDDP CONF NTIAL EEL ASSIFIED 00 FEOLN FM IRAQR TO FCOLN 191630Z SEP GRS 1047 CONFIDENTIAL FM IRAQREP TO IMMEDIATE FCO TELNO 175 OF 191630Z SEP 03 INFO PRIORITY UKMIS NEW YORK, WASHINGTON, UKDEL NATO BRUSSELS INFO PRTORIN RAVAS, ERLAN BEMASCUS, OATRO, RUKARA, AE ANABE INFO PRIORITY BAHRAIN, DOHA, MUSCAT, For Political Director Your Telno 71 SUBJECT: NOSEC: IRAQ: POLITICAL PROCESS SUMMARY 1. Discussion of possible timings for the political process needs to Things are stirring in take more careful account of the variables. the Iraqi political field and we may not be able to exercise complete to control. Undate on the constitutional process and on the pressure advance handover. Indications of Bremer's thinking, not always fully consistent. This sets the context for sensible plan B thinking Page 1 DECLASSIFIED 723 scale resources from outside. Bremer has told me that he thinks the CPA might run for anything even if his preferred target date for elections and up to two years, subsequent handover remains summer/autumn This longer time bracket is connected in his thinking to the essential need, In the short term, he it, to ensure a certain kind of new Iraq. does not wish to take the responsibility for setting dates against his Seven Steps. He is all too conscious of the variables and wants Hence his pressure on to avoid time commitments which may not hold. the Governing Council to come up with dates themselves, an approach which anyway suits his tactic of pushing the Iraqi face to the fore whenever possible and sensible. The Constitutional You know where the GC process has got to. preparatory Committee(CPC) is due to report with recommendations by Earlier indications that the CPC would the end of September. recommend elections in line with to the Constitutional Conference, Secular CPC members fear an are being tempered. Sistani's fatwa, elected Islamist majority and so are pushing for several options to be proposed, either of including appointment or partial elections, which could But the pressure to be completed relatively quickly. meet Sistani's demands and the logic that a lengthy transitional period will make immediate transfer of sovereignty more pressing, cannot be ruled out. mean that a single recommendation for elections how this goes, while of course he and I and Bremer is waiting.to others are arguing with the relevant Iraqis we meet a Constitutional this means that we Conference are unwise. shall be lucky to get a conference convened within the next month. 6. The pressure to transfer executive power soon, whatever happens on the Constitution, has stirred the pot rather more than we were expecting. But I do not yet sense that there is real momentum in this direction within the GC and Cabinet as a whole. ecognise the downsides of early independence, and want the US arounc The chalabi group appears prepared to take for quite a bit longer. the risk of acceleration because they may fare worse in a democratic Akila al Hashimi, to me at least. was clear that contest later on. she recoanised the realities That said, there is so much movement in the air, with the UNGA business next week, the Dubai/Madrid conferences and the that we will have to be emergence of some real ministerial activity, prepared for developments in any one of several directions. 7. I find Bremer's readiness to push the senior Iragis to the front but I expected very interesting. We Brits think it the right He continues to remind the GC But he does not seem fussed to be losing the substantive initiative DECLASSIFIED more sensible strategy 1s to be serious about the seven steps, but to and try to affect the outcome of the variables watch carefully f they go against. listed above. us, a Plan B should be available. I rather think that events will give us in due course, a peg on which to hang our broaching this with the Americans. 9. I mentioned security sector development (para 3) I am hoping to system is not to take alarm. So not to take agare bout in main done sue the back. available in London would be good to have. But the until 25 September, and so I cannot start straightaway. police area seems to be moving nicely. GREENSTOCK YYYY 7 MAIN 0 • IRAQ LIMITED SINGLE COPIES DG POLITICAL AMED//HD EU(M) //ASST DIR IRAQ POLICY UNIT LEG ADV//GRAINGER MENAD/ /MED/HD NAD//HD 0 CPD//HD 0 PRESS OFFICE//HD 0 EU(M) //HD EU(E) //HD 0 SECPOL D//HD SSU//HD UND//HD PS PS B SYMONS PS PUS DE CORPORATE AFFAIRS THE LEGAL ADV DG DEFINT 0 0 DIR INFORMATION DIR INTNAT SEC EAST MENAD//DIR MIDDLE ATT GEN//ADAMS CAOFF1//D BOWEN NO 10//MR MANNING NO 10//MR RYCROFT MOD//I LEE/DIR GEN OP POLICY [KNOWLES] Page 3 DECLASSIFIED Page 4 DECI ASSIFIED