Letter sawers to sheinwald foreign policy strategy group first meeting

28 November 2003 Sir Nigel Sheinwald KCMG No.10 Dear Niged, FOREIGN POLICY STRATEGY GROUP: FIRST MEETING 1. Thank you for your letter of 21 November convening a new Foreign Policy Strategy Group. I welcome this initiative and look forward to the first meeting. 2. George Fergusson wrote separately commissioning papers on reform in the Middle East; the particular problems of handling Turkey in 2004; and improving our approach to post-conflict management. I enclose short papers on each designed to trigger discussion. I gather the Cabinet Office will be circulating separately a paper on the Balkans. Your owe, John Sawers cc: Mr Webb, MOD General Fry, DCDS(C), MOD Mr Ahmed, DFID Mr Haddrill, DTI Mr Cunliffe, HMT SIS Mr Scarlett, O Mr Bowen, OD Sec Mr Fraser, DSI, FCO DECLASSIFIED (ii) US, EU and others working at cross-purposes We need an international game-plan for managing these risks: (a) Package of Middle East issues must move forward together: resolution of Israel/Palestine; rehabilitation of Iraq; political, economic and social reform; (b) Public pre: entation needs to be carefully handied, particularly US angie; (c) Multilateral cover likely to make initiatives more palatable (eg working through World Bank, UNDP, WTO): (d) Economic/social angle may be the best way in to the more sensitive political issues; (e) Need to get US and EU partners working together, delivering a consistent pro-reform message, and avoiding competition. Specific opportunities: • US/UK G8 Presidencies: Good way of pulling US and EU together. A working group of officials should now draw up proposals. These could focus on tackling barriers to investment; promoting intra-regional trade and linking up US/EU plans for free trade areas; improving supply of credit for SMEs; a reglonal "Know How Fund". Much of this could be implemented through support for World Bank/UNDP activity. • EU: We should aim for a political statement by the EU during the Irish Presidency, building on the European Security Strategy, to show the US is not alone in. wanting change, and to give greater direction to EU programmes. We should also focus on: UK/France/Spanish co- operation on making EuroMed/MEDA more effective levers for good governance, particularly through tough Action Plans under the Wider Europe initiative. • NATO Istanbul Summit (June 2004): US interested in making Greater Middle East a major focus. Consistent with UK ideas on turning "Mediterranean Dialogue" Into a more action-oriented "Mediterranean Partnership" DECLASSIFIED • Media/public dipiomacy: we need to establish a credible network of moderate talking heads, and reach out to UK Muslims who are an influence in the region; • Programme expenditure: DFID's new regional programme for the Middle East has a major focus on improving the multilateral effort. We are also using f6m from the global conflict prevention fund and £1.5m from the FCO's global opportunities fund on specific projects. Our overall bilateral resources are limited, so we must work with partners. • MOD input into NATO approach will be important: now extending partnership regionally as well as engaging bilaterally with selected countries through mil-mil links. Issues: Regional Development Bank: ECOFIN has just agreed a compromise proposal to upgrade EIB's "FEMIP" lending arm. Proposals for a bank were made before under the Osio Peace Process, but doubts over effectiveness. Idea does not have much support in the US administration. Regional security: various models put forward, including OSCE, a narrower Gulf security structure, and a'7 + 5 mechanism based on Iraq and its neighbours. How do we make sure key players such as Iran are involved? And how do we build momentum without heavy UK/US fingerprints that might kill it? Whitehall Ministerial Group: this is a cross-government agenda. We should use a Ministerial group to take this work forward and review progress. High level political commitment: an intervention by the Prime Minister at the December European Council on the need for the EU to play a key role on reform in the region? A speech by the Foreign Secretary in early 2004? DECLASSIFIED and social reform in the Middle East:- - It would provide a model for other Muslim countries, demonstrating that political pluralism and economic success can be achieved in an Islamic context; - It would give the EU more credibility in its engagement with other countries in the region, countering arguments that it is a Christian club etc; and - It would provide additional assets for the EU's engagement in the region, Including historical and business links and expertise. But there is a lot of baggage too. 3. The next year will be crucial for Turkey's EU aspirations and the likelihood of it sustaining Its reforms. The key dates are: - May 2004 - Cyprus accession; - June 2004 - UK/Turkey bilateral summit at the time of the Istanbul NATO ministerial; - October 2004 - Commíssion Regular Report; and - December 2004 - EC decision. 4. Questions: is there more we could be doing to encourage Turkey to continue Its reforms and to be more proactive in promoting reforms elsewhere? Would they play? And what might go wrong? 5. Terrorism. The Istanbul Turkish/AQ bombs represent a whole new order of terrorism for Turkey. Kurdish and domestic "anti- state" groups arguably reinforced the Kemalist system - a brake on reforms, but not a direct challenge to Turkey's EU orientation. But the Istanbul bombs have punished Turkey for looking westwards. Questions: how should/will the EU react, and how DECLASSIFIED 8. Cyprus. Window for a deal in Spring 2004 (depending on outcome of 14 December elections in the north). 9.If all goes wrong, and Turkey is "spurned by Europe", The TGS keep telling themselves that everything the AKP are currently doing to comply with the Copenhagen criteria (e.g. cutting the military down to size; freedom of religion) would also be needed if their ultimate goal were an Islamic state. Questions: how do we handle a disappointed AKP/ Erdogan? Would the fall-out affect the wider region? DECLASSIFIED sad eater, the secretaries or State from MOD, DFID and FCO met and agreed that we should: > review HMG's approach to planning and preparation for post conflict situations at the national level and then look at influencing others, with the EU a high priority; > consider setting up a cross Whitehall co-ordinating mechanism and look at the various tools needed, including personnel databases, training, and how we spread best practice; and > take into account the resource implications. 3. Work is now underway. The FCO has set up a Post Conflict Reconstruction Unit that is working closely with DFID and MOD officials to produce a trilateral paper for Ministers in January. The The FCo has set mir of Contino me FCO view is that this should be short, focusing on Whitehall structures and methods for international engagement, with an outline of the more detailed work that would follow Ministerial endorsement. We are examining in parallel the implications for FCO structures, working methods and resources. 4. The three Departments are meeting regularly and are working to identify the range of generic issues that have to be dealt with in any post conflict situation and which department should lead on them. These include: • external and internal security (Including security sector reform), > maintaining law and order (policing, judiciary, prisons, human rights protections), > rebuilding infrastructure and the dellvery of basic social services (electricity, water, health care, education), › rebuilding administrative capacity, including economic management, customs, immigration, environment, > supporting political transitions, including constitutional development, elections, and transitional justice. DECLASSIFIED b. Further work is going on at a number of levels: > On 20 November, the International Sub-group of the Civil Service Management Board discussed the need for greater Whitehall coordination. There was strong support for this from all departments represented at the meeting. > The Strategy Unit Failing States project includes an element looking at post conflict reconstruction. > The Post Conflict Reconstruction Unit in the FCO is looking at what training is already provided both in the UK and elsewhere (including by the OSCE, UN and EU) for civilians deployed In the field and whether there Is a need for a training centre for UK (and/or international) civilian experts • UKMIS New York and UND are working on improvements to UN involvement in peacekeeping and peacebuilding, and will work closely with Lord Hannay in his capacity as a member of the UNS- G's High Level Panel > In the EU, the Council Secretariat and Relex want to strengthen their work on civilian crisis management, including through recruitment of senior national experts with post conflict experlence. 7. As part of this process, DFID is hosting a conference at Wilton Park in Dec 2003. This will highlight the range of Issues to be addressed Immediately post conflict, in order to identify gaps in provision and determine the principles and next steps necessary for an adequate response. 8. The key Issues for us are: a) how we improve the UK performance in this area; b) how we help improve the international effort - especially in the UN; c) what our training and personnel management needs are. DECLASSIFIED