Iraqis Say Coalition Troops are Vital Now,

January 6, 2004 M-03-04 Iraqis Say Coalition Troops are Vital Now, But Prefer Handoff to Own Security Forces Nearly all say that Jobs Would Also Increase Security This late November Office of Research poll – conducted prior to the capture of Saddam Hussein – among urban residents of five cities in Iraq shows that most Iraqis consider resistance-initiated violence a counterproductive strategy. As other surveys have shown, most Iraqis are against an immediate withdrawal of Coalition Forces, but these results indicate that Iraqis are anxious for the New Iraqi Army and police to assume greater responsibility. • Large majorities in these five cities believe attacks against Iraqi civilians, police, and international organizations are more harmful than helpful for Iraq’s future. Somewhat smaller majorities say attacks against civilian CPA officials and U.S. forces are harmful, with minorities up to 31 percent saying attacks against the U.S. forces are helpful. • About two-thirds in all cities say the attacks emphasize the need for the continued presence of Coalition Forces in Iraq. At the same time, majorities agree that the troops should depart after a permanent government is elected by the Iraqi people. • Increasing patrols of Iraqi police rather than of Coalition soldiers would make people feel safer in their neighborhoods. Iraqis say that the new police are trusted by and accessible to most members of their communities, and few think they are tied too closely to the previous regime. • When asked which actions would be most effective in improving security, the top recommendation from Iraqis is to provide jobs for the unemployed, followed by hiring and training more police and transferring political sovereignty to an Iraqi government. Security Is the Greatest Worry Among Urban Residents The attacks against various targets both before and after Ramadan have reinforced public concerns about safety and security. Urban residents of Baghad, Basrah, Kirkuk, Hilla and Diwaniya name safety and security as the greatest worry (62% overall), followed by economic issues (18% overall) and infrastructure repair (14% overall, see also Appendix Table 1). In Hilla and Diwaniya, residents feel safe in their own neighborhoods (Table 1, next page), but half in Hilla and a third in Diwaniya worry that attacks might take place near their homes (Table 2, next page). __________________________________________________________________________________ Preliminary findings from the second State Department survey in Iraq are based on face-to-face interviews conducted among 1,167 urban Iraqi adults, ages 18 and over, in Baghdad (N=543), Basrah (N=217), Kirkuk (N=125), Hilla (N=139), and Diwania (N=143). The poll was commissioned by the Office of Research and carried out between November 19-28, 2003. The margin of error for the entire sample is approximately ±6 percent, but varies among cities separate cities. 1 In the other three cities, Iraqis fear for their safety on their neighborhood streets as well as being concerned about the possibility of attacks. Similar to views expressed last August, majorities in Baghdad (68%) and Basrah (80%) say they feel “not very safe” or “not safe at all” in their own neighborhoods; half in Kirkuk (52%) also feel somewhat or very unsafe. Similar majorities in these cities also express concern about violent attacks occurring in their neighborhood (58% in Baghdad, 74% in Basrah, 57% in Kirkuk). Table 1. How safe do you feel in your neighborhood? Baghdad Basrah Kirkuk Hilla Di waniya Overall Very safe 31% 18% 42% 65% 71% 39% Not very safe 56 68 40 30 22 49 Not safe at all 12 12 12 4 7 11 Don’t know/no answer 1 2 5 2 0 2 ember 1 00 Office of Research Survey, Nov 9-28, 2 3 Table 2. Concern about Attacks in Neighborhood Baghdad Basrah Kirkuk Hilla Diwaniya Overall Very concerned 21% 42% 19% 37% 18% 27% Somewhat concerned 37 32 38 19 14 31 Total concerned 58 74 57 51 32 58 Office of Research Survey, Nov emb 2003 er 19-28, P ublic Sees Attacks as Detrimental to Iraq’s Progress Attacks have prompted public anxiety about security rath er than support for the violence. Virtually all Iraqis in these five cities believe attacks against Iraqi civilians and police are more harmful than helpful for Iraq’s future (Table 3). Large majorities also view negatively attacks taken against international organizations, foreign embassies, the Governing Council, Iraqi civilians working with the CPA, power and water stations and oil refineries (see also Appendix Table 2). Smaller majorities disapprove of attacks against civilian CPA officials and U.S. forces, with minorities up to 31 percent saying attacks against the U.S. forces are helpful.1 Baghdad Basrah Hilla Iraqi civilians 99% 96% 99% 99% Iraqi police 98 93 99 99 International organizations 97 85 98 99 Iraqis working with the IGC and CPA Attacks against civilian CPA officials Attacks against U.S. forces Table 3. Percent Who Say Att acks Against Targets Harmful to Future Development of Iraq Kirkuk 97% 94 89 88 81 61 ovem -28, Office of Research Survey, N ber 19 2003 Diwaniya O verall 99% 97 94 85 72 96 98 86 84 63 92 90 81 68 52 74 82 67 Ir aqis distinguish little between the perpetrators of attacks against various targets, and tend to say that a mix of both outside and inside groups is responsible for the attacks (Appendix Table 3a and 3b). Majorities in each city believe that the attacks are an effort by foreign-based groups to create instability in the country; up to about half also agree (or did, at the time of the survey), that they are part of an effort to reinstate Saddam or to liberate Iraq from occupation (Table 4, next page). 1 Ten percent overall say attacks against CPA officials are helpful (9% in Baghdad, 19% in Basrah, 11% in Kirkuk, 4% in Hilla, and 6% in Diwaniya). Twenty-three percent overall say that attacks against U.S. forces are helpful (23% in Baghdad, 31% in Basrah, 27% in Kirkuk, 16% in Hilla, and 13% in Diwaniya). Caution should be taken to avoid overstating differences among cities given these small percentages and different sample sizes. See methodology section for margins of error.2 Table 4. Public Perceptions of Attacks Percentage agreeing with following statements: Baghdad Basrah Kirkuk Hilla Diwaniya Overall The attacks are an effort of groups outside of Iraq to create instability in our country 82% 76% 72% 81% 85% 80% The attacks are part of an effort to 40 53 52 45 47 46 reinstate Saddam into power The attacks are an effort to liberate Iraq 37 48 58 14 11 35 from U.S. and coalition occupation. The attacks emphasize the need for 61 69 68 71 72 66 continued presence of Coalition Forces in our country Office of Research Survey, November 19-28, 2003 Attacks Underscore Importance of Coalition Troop Presence About two-thirds in all cities agree with the statement that the attacks emphasize the need for the continued presence of Coalition Forces in Iraq (Table 4 above, last statement). Majorities across all cities also say they would feel less safe if Coalition Forces left immediately (Table 5). Yet Iraqis do not want the troops to remain in Iraq for too long: majorities in all five cities agree that the troops should depart after a permanent government is elected by the Iraqi people (78% overall, with no fewer than 72% in any city). Only a few (no more than 14% in any city) want the troops to stay until Iraq has been stabilized; no more than 10 percent call for troops to withdraw now. Table 5. If Coalition Forces Left Immediately, Iraqis Would Feel Baghdad Basrah Kirkuk Hilla Diwaniya Overall More safe 12% 6% 15% 7% 13% 11% Less safe 71 85 62 83 83 75 No difference 13 8 14 5 1 10 Office of Research Survey, November 19-28, 2003 Residents Would Feel Safer With Iraqi Security Forces Taking the Lead Iraqis would like their own police and army to have greater responsibility in their country’s protection. Presently urban residents report seeing more Iraqi police than coalition patrols in their neighborhood. And eight in ten or more across the cities say they would feel safer if Iraqi police patrols were increased, compared to no more than half who would feel safe with increased coalition patrols (Tables 6a & 6b; see also Appendix Table 4). Urban residents express confidence in both the new Iraqi Army and the new Iraqi Police Force, with about three- quarters overall agreeing that the police are trusted by communities and that the police are accessible to help resolve community problems (Table 7 next page and Appendix Table 5). Few think the police force is too closely tied to the past regime; in fact, Iraqis tend to believe the police are too closely affiliated with the American forces. Table 6a. In your neighborhood, how often do you see patrols of ... Coalition Iraqi police Once a day or more 20% 33% A few times a week 20 19 Once a week 9 5 Every other week 10 9 Less often 39 33 Table 6b. Would you feel more or less safe in your neighborhood if there were more frequent patrols of ... Coalition Iraqi police More safe 38% 86% Less safe 41 4 No difference 19 8 Overall percentages, Office of Research poll 3 Table 7. Public Has Good Impressions of the New Iraqi Police Percentage who strongly or somewhat agree: Baghdad Basrah Kirkuk Hilla Diwaniya Overall Too many members of the local Iraqi police are tied to the past regime. 17% 24% 21% 29% 27% 22% The Iraqi police force is too closely tied to the American forces 55 58 68 58 59 58 In general, the local Iraqi police force is trusted by most members of the 80 70 76 78 82 77 community The local police are accessible to community members to help resolve 63 66 78 85 87 70 problems. Office of Research Survey, November 19-28, 2003 When asked to choose from a list which actions would be most effective in improving security in their country, the public unanimously agrees that creating job opportunities for the unemployed would be the most effective step (Table 8). Large majorities also think that training and hiring police, transferring political authority to an Iraqi government and retraining and rehiring the former military would help. Relatively few think that either the departure of the coalition troops or increasing coalition patrols would be effective; and few feel that increasing the authority of independent militias would have a positive impact. Table 8. Iraqis Say Jobs, Hiring Iraqi Security Forces and Transferring Sovereignty Are Best Ways to Increase Security % who say following actions would be VERY effective Baghdad Basrah Kirkuk Hilla Diwaniya Overall Creating job opportunities for the unemployed 95% 98% 98% 100% 99% 97% Training and hiring more Iraqi local police 84 66 86 91 92 83 Transferring all political authority to an Iraqi 79 69 89 77 83 79 government Retraining and rehiring military officers and 50 28 73 56 55 50 soldiers from the old regime Increasing foot patrols of U.S. and Coalition Forces in Iraqi neighborhoods 21 21 27 19 21 21 Immediate departure of Coalition Forces 23 14 30 15 10 20 Giving more authority to independent neighborhood militias 25 10 10 18 9 18 Office of Research Survey, December 19-28, 2003 No Sectarian Divide When It Comes to Best Measures for Safety Those who identify themselves as Sunni and Shia2 are of the same mind when it comes to the best way to improve the security situation. Both Sunni and Shia have substantial confidence in the new Iraqi army and the new Iraqi police, and both see transferring security responsibility to Iraqis as an effective method to increase security (See Figure 1, next page). Sunnis are somewhat more likely than Shia to say that retraining and rehiring the former military would be very effective. Though Sunnis are more likely than Shia to agree that “the attacks are an effort to liberate Iraq from U.S. and coalition occupation,” (52% Sunni vs. 27% Shia), they generally express views in line with public criticism of the recent attacks. Eight in ten or more within each sect say that attacks against Iraqi civilians (including those who work with the CPA), the Iraqi police, international organizations, foreign embassies 2 For specific percentages of self-described Sunni/Shia per city, see methodology. 4 and CPA officials are more harmful then helpful. Six in ten Sunnis (and seven in ten Shia) disapprove of attacks against Coalition Forces. Two-thirds of Sunni say they would feel less safe if the Coalition Forces withdrew immediately and six in ten agree that the recent attacks emphasize the importance of the coalition troop presence. Figure 1. Sunni and Shia Preferences Coincide on Best Way to Improve Security sovereignty Sunni Shia Sunni Shia Sunni Shia 85% 82% 81% 12% 14% 12% transfer of retraining & authority to training & creating job rehiring military Iraqis hiring police opportunities Sunni 96% 3% Shia 98% 2% 78% 13% 63% 27% 44% 33% Very Effective Way to Improve Security Somewhat Effective Way to Improve Security Prepared by Dina Smeltz and Jodi Nachtwey (smeltz@pd.state.gov; nachtweyj@pd.state.gov) Issued by The Office of Research, U.S. Department of State (202-203-7932). 5 METHODOLOGY Face-to-face interviews were conducted among 1,167 Iraqi adults residing in the cities of Baghdad, Basrah, Kirkuk, Hilla, and Diwania. Interviews were carried out between November 19 and November 28, 2003. Please note that the size of the sample for each city is not proportionate to the overall population. A multi-stage probability-based sample was drawn, utilizing residential listings from Iraq’s 1997 Population and Housing Census. Census sub-districts were utilized as primary sampling units (PSUs), with 80 PSUs being selected using probability-proportional-to-size procedures. Due to the size of Baghdad, the city was stratified by neighborhood to ensure that all city areas were represented in the sample. Interviewers were given all address details for households at four sampling points within each PSU. Five interviews were conducted at each sampling point. Within each selected household, one respondent was randomly selected using the last birthday method. The margin of error, assuming a 95% confidence level and the clustering effects of a multi-stage design, is approximately ± 6% for the overall sample. The margin of error varies across the samples of the individual cities as shown in the table below. These figures are estimates. City Sample Size Margin of Error Baghdad 543 + 5.9 % Basrah 217 + 13.3% Kirkuk 125 + 17.5% Hilla 139 + 16.6% Diwania 143 + 16.4% Total 1167 + 5.7% The demographic characteristics of survey respondents for each city are listed in the tables below, showing respondents’ religious affiliation, age and education. To record religious affiliation, respondents were shown a card listing several religious groups and asked to point or name the category that best described them. Religious affiliation by city Baghdad Basrah Kirkuk Hilla Diwaniya Overall Sunni 25% 15% 42% 4% 1% 19% Shia 51 77 20 96 98 64 Other 17 7 32 1 1 12 Orthodox 2 1 0 0 0 1 Catholic 4 1 0 0 0 2 Protestant -- 0 0 0 0 -- Office of Research Survey, November 19-28, 2003 6 18-29 30-39 40-49 50-59 60+ None Primary Intermediate Secondary Diploma University Post Graduate Age group by city Baghdad Basrah Kirkuk Hilla 35% 34% 32% 30% 25 29 22 25 20 17 17 27 10 10 22 14 11 10 7 4 Office of Research Survey, November 19-28, 2003 Education by city Baghdad Basrah Kirkuk Hilla 6% 4% 8% 7% 6 9 7 5 16 17 26 23 23 19 14 17 18 20 18 22 14 13 14 12 14 17 10 14 Office of Research Survey, November 19-28, 2003 7 Diwaniya Overall 36% 34% 24 25 24 20 12 12 4 9 Diwaniya Overall 10% 7% 9 7 32 20 12 19 18 19 12 13 6 13 Appendix Tables Appendix Table 1. Top Three Concerns Facing Community Baghdad Basrah Kirkuk Hilla Diwaniya Overall Security and safety 64% 65% 55% 50% 64% 62% Economic issues, unemployment, poverty 13 26 22 17 19 18 Repairing infrastructure 15 5 16 22 12 14 Office of Research Survey, November 19-28, 2003 Appendix Table 2. Full listing: Percent Who Say Attacks Against Targets Harmful to Future Development of Iraq Baghdad Basrah Kirkuk Hilla Diwaniya Overall Attacks against Iraqi civilians 99% 96% 97% 99% 99% 99% Attacks against power and water systems 99 96 96 99 99 98 Attacks against Iraqi police 98 93 94 99 99 97 Attacks against oil pipelines and refineries 98 92 94 99 99 97 Attacks against international organizations 97 85 89 98 99 94 Attacks against foreign embassies 93 77 90 95 95 90 Attacks against Iraqi civilians on the IGC and working with the CPA 85 72 88 96 98 86 Attacks against civilian CPA officials 84 63 81 92 90 81 Attacks against U.S. forces 68 52 61 74 82 67 Office of Research Survey, November 19-28, 2003 Appendix Table 3a. Do you think the attacks against _____________ have been carried out by: Groups within Iraq Groups outside A mix Don’t Know/ No Answer Against international organizations 10% 27% 50% 14% Against Iraqi police 25 20 42 14 Against Coalition Forces 22 16 49 14 Overall percentages, Office of Research Survey, November 19-28, 2003 Appendix Table 3b. And what specific group do you think is responsible for the attacks against .... [open end; precoded responses; most frequent responses shown] Groups Responsible ...International organizations ...Iraqi police ...Coalition Forces Former Ba’ath party members 6% 9% 8% Saddam 13 19 20 Radical Islamist groups 10 6 11 Terrorist organizations 17 13 4 Individuals paid to carry out 9 9 8 Common criminals 6 11 4 Kuwaitis 2 1 -- Syrians 4 2 3 Israelis 5 3 2 Iranians 2 1 -- U.S. 1 1 -- Coalition soldiers 1 1 0 Don’t Know/No Response 21 22 32 Overall percentages, Office of Research Survey, November 19-28, 2003 8 Appendix Table 4. Iraqis Would Feel Safer With Iraqi Police Patrols Than with Coalition Patrols % who would feel MORE SAFE in their neighborhoods if there were more frequent ... Baghdad Basrah Kirkuk Hilla Diwaniya Overall Coalition force patrols 31% 46% 30% 40% 56% 38% Iraqi police patrols 84 86 82 80 93 86 Office of Research Survey, November 19-28, 2003 Appendix Table 5. Iraqis Confident in New Institutions % who say they have a great deal or a fair amount of confidence in ... Baghdad Basrah Kirkuk Hilla Diwaniya Overall New Iraqi Army 29% 18% A great deal 38 55 37% 30 42% 27 52% 27 32% 37 A fair amount 67 73 67 69 79 69 Total confident New Iraqi Police 46 27 A great deal 41 51 54 27 51 37 62 29 46 40 A fair amount 87 78 81 88 91 86 Total confident New Iraqi Ministries 27 19 A great deal 38 42 24 35 36 32 49 24 29 36 A fair amount 65 61 59 68 73 65 Total confident The Governing Council 28 21 A great deal 36 45 19 37 37 34 47 29 29 36 A fair amount 64 66 56 61 76 65 Total confident Office of Research Survey, November 19-28, 2003 9