Administrator’s Weekly Report — Essential Services — 1 حزيران 2004

Administrator’s Weekly Report Essential Services April 3-9, 2004 HIGHLIGHTS -- The seven-day average (April 3-9) of peak electricity production was 3,746 MW. -- April is the peak of flood season (March – May) thus storage levels of the observed hydroelectric dams have been lowered in anticipation of heavy water flow. -- The Ministry of Oil met the CPA goal of 15 days of supply for Liquefied Petroleum Gas in the South. The days of suppy goal for kerosene was met in all regions. I. Provide Electricity Services that Meet National Needs Improve generating capacity to 6,000 MW by June 1, 2004; Fully implement policy on allocation of electrical power; Publish draft of long term strategy; Minimize sabotage and improve security The seven-day average (April 3-9) of peak electricity production was 3,746 MW, a decrease of 2.3 percent from the previous week. Spring maintenance continues, which is affecting output. On April 7, peak production hit a high for the week at 3,899 MW. Iraq Peak Output Megawatts 6000 5500 5000 4500 4000 3500 3000 1/9/04 1/16/04 1/23/04 1/30/04 2/6/04 2/13/04 2/20/04 2/27/04 3/5/04 3/12/04 3/19/04 3/26/04 4/2/04 4/9/04 Peak 7 Day Average Source: Ministry of Electricity, Power Daily, April 9, 2004 FOUO Prepared by the Information Management Unit The seven-day average for April 3-9 total production of electrical energy was 80,652 MWh per day, a decrease of 2.1 percent from the previous week. The reason for the decline is continued scheduled maintenance. On April 6, the total hours of electrical energy produced peaked for the week at 83,559 MWh per day. Iraq Total Megawatts Hours 110000 Megawatt Hours 100000 90000 80000 70000 60000 50000 1/9/04 1/16/04 1/23/04 1/30/04 2/6/04 2/13/04 2/20/04 2/27/04 3/5/04 3/12/04 3/19/04 3/26/04 4/2/04 4/9/04 MWHR's 7 Day Av. Source: Ministry of Electricity, Power Daily, April 9, 2004 This past week, an average of 318 MW (15 generators) of generating capacity was on forced (unplanned) outage, and 1,918 MW (27 generators) was on scheduled outage. Eight (400 kV) and ten (132 kV) transmission lines are currently out of service. However, existing transmission capacity is sufficient to compensate for out-of service lines. 2 The following chart presents the daily electric power consumption broken down among the North, Central (including Baghdad), and South regions. During the reporting period, the North consumed an average of 805 MW per day or 23 percent of total power consumption. Per day, the Central region consumed 2,235 MW or 64 percent of the total, and the South consumed 440 MW or 13 percent of total electricity consumption during the past week. Electricity Consumption 4500 4000 3500 3000 M egaw atts 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 3/9/04 3/11/04 3/13/04 3/15/04 3/17/04 3/19/04 3/21/04 3/23/04 3/25/04 3/27/04 3/29/04 3/31/04 4/2/04 4/4/04 4/6/04 4/8/04 North Central South Source: Ministry of Electricity, Power Daily, April 9, 2004FOUO Prepared by the Information Management Unit Average Daily Electrical Power Distribution per Governorate as of 2004 Note: Hours of Residential Service will temporarily decrease as more units are taken out of service for spring maintenance and temperatures increase. AVERAGE HOURS OF Dahok 89 MW 12 Hrs Arbil 18 Hrs Naynawa 336 MW 11 Hrs Tamim 126 MW 13 Hrs Sulaymaniyah 118 MW 18 Hrs Salah Ad Din 195 MW 12 Hrs Dyala 87 MW 12 Hrs Anbar 164 MW 17 Hrs Baghdad 1055 MW 15 Hrs Karbala 86 MW 20 Hrs Babil 92 MW 13 Hrs Wasit 84 MW 17 Hrs Qadisiyah 55 MW 12 Hrs An Najaf 93 MW 14 Hrs ELECTRICITY AVAILABLE TO GOVERNORATE PER DAY OVER A 7 DAY PERIOD ≤ 8 Hrs = Red 9 to 15 Hrs =Amber ≥ 16 Hrs = Green No Report = White Dhi Qar 86 MW 15 Hrs Misan 50 MW 16 Hrs Basrah 268 MW 22 Hrs Muthanna Muthanna 48 MW 10 Hrs 38 MW 15 Hrs Average Electrical Power Distribution per Governorate as of 08 April 2004 Percent Change (7 Day) Baghdad Duhok Naynawa Tamim Salah Ad Din Anbar Dyala Babil Karbala Najaf Qadisiyah Wasit Muthanna Dhi Qar Misan Basrah -8.6% -1.3% -6.5% -6.0% -7.0% -6.1% -10.8% -8.1% 2.3% 4.3% -8.8% -2.6% -18.6% -16.7% -21.3% 3.9% Source: Ministry of Electricity LEGEND: GREEN AMBER RED WHITE Greater than 16 hours of average daily power 8 to 16 hours of average daily power Less than 8 hours of average daily power No report FOUO Prepared by the Information Management Unit 3 II. Reconstruct Communications and Postal Systems Build Iraq’s first responder network; Establish independent regulatory agency; Upgrade Iraqi Telephone and Postal Company (ITPC) network for interoperability; Build transmission component data network for Iraq, including international gateways; Restructure ITPC and its business operations; Upgrade and modernize postal systems; Upgrade ITPC outside plant for increased subscriber capacity and use Since May 2003, CPA has reinstated landline telephone service for 160,654 subscribers. CPA continues to make progress in restoring service to customers, especially in Baghdad. (Note: due to events of the past week, updated landline subscriber numbers are not available this week). The following paragraphs delineate the number of landline and cell phone subscribers in Iraq, and compare them to pre-war estimates. The chart below shows the number of active landline subscribers in April 2003, the current number of active landline subscribers, the number of landline subscribers reinstated post-conflict (since May 2003), and the number of formerly active landline subscribers who remain without service (excluding the three Northern governorates). Source: CPA Senior Advisor to the Minister of Communications Iraqi Telephone and Postal Company [ITPC] The three new cell phone companies in Iraq (Asia Cell, Iraqna, and Atheer in the North, Central, and South respectively) continue to enroll new cell phone subscribers. Currently, in Mosul, Sulaymaniyah, and Kirkuk, there are 151,016 cell phone subscribers. In Baghdad, there are 135,000 cell phone subscribers; and in Basra, Al Kut, Amarah, Samawah, and Nasiriyah there are 40,000 cell phone subscribers. Currently there are 743,254 active landline telephone subscribers in Iraq, compared to 833,000 subscribers pre-war. The total number of telephone subscribers in Iraq, including the cell phone subscribers, is 1,064,464, which is 27.9 percent greater than the number of active landline subscribers pre-war. The penetration rate (the number of active landline telephone subscribers as a percentage of the population) is 2.8 percent (using an estimated population of 25.9 million). FOUO Prepared by the Information Management Unit 4 The following chart shows the percentage of operational telephone subscribers compared to the number of active subscribers in April 2003. The percentage of active subscribers in Baghdad increased by three percentage points from last week. Source: CPA Senior Advisor to the Minister of Communications Iraqi Telephone and Postal Company [ITPC] III. Provide Food Security for all Iraqis Enhance capacity of Ministry of Agriculture; Assure supply of inputs; Strengthen research system; Ensure adequate stocks for Public Distribution System (PDS); Monitor food security; Hand over administration of system in the North; Initiate reform of rations basket; Environmental initiatives The following chart shows the percentage of estimated requirements of stocks for the 12 public distribution goods that Iraqis receive under the PDS until the end of May. The percentage of estimated requirements are categorized into opening stocks (amount on hand), and scheduled arrivals for goods prior to July 1 procured under existing contracts from the Oil for Food Program, the Ministry of Trade (MOT), and the World Food Program (WFP). 5 The PDS stocks in the following chart are calculated as a percentage of two months (April- May) estimated demand, plus a one-month buffer stock (CPA goal by May 1). Having 100 percent of each commodity will ensure that the food rations are available through May, including at least a one-month on hand buffer stock for each commodity. PDS: APR - MAY Stocks as a Percentage of Requirements (plus One Month Buffer) 200.0% 180.0% 160.0% 140.0% 120.0% 100.0% 80.0% 60.0% 40.0% 20.0% 0.0% a t W he a l N ation Foreign W he at Ric e Pulse s G h ee/O il ula g a r S u Tea M ilk als Salt Form n t n t g Cere S o ap rge Tota l fa In a nin Dete W e Opening Stocks Scheduled Arrivals Under Existing Contracts New Procurements MOT New Procurements WFP Planned Arrivals MOT/CPA Procurement OFF Unconfirmed Contracts Source: CPA Food Security Team FOUO Prepared by the Information Management Unit Note: Oil for Food (OFF) unconfirmed contracts are those contracts for which a valid letter of credit exists but no shipping documentation has yet been received by the Oil for Food coordination center. As OFF contracts are fulfilled they are replaced by MOT and WFP procurement. CPA projects that no shortages will occur in the April and May rations given the new procurements of food basket commodities by both WFP and MOT, including accelerated delivery schedules for the commodities where stocks have been low. However, MOT faces problems in providing updated, accurate stock information on a weekly basis. These problems stem from difficult communications links between the governorates and Baghdad, as well as the need to upgrade inventory control procedures. CPA is addressing these challenges as part of its handover strategy. Pulses are expected to continue to decline because of the warming months ahead making it more difficult to store them for extended periods. They will be replaced by tomato paste and canned cheese. The following chart shows the current PDS stocks and scheduled commodity arrivals as a percentage of total requirements from April until transition on July 1. The CPA goal is to provide sufficient ration stocks for July, plus a three month buffer. On the graph below, 100 percent of opening stocks in each commodity category indicates that this goal has been achieved. While substantial additional shipments of most food basket commodities have been procured, they are not shown as these shipments will arrive after July 1. 6 PDS Stocks as a Percentage of Total Requirements from APR - JUL 1, 2004 (including 3 month buffer) 200% 180% 160% 140% 120% 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% National Wheat Foreign Wheat Rice Pulses Ghee/Oil Sugar Tea Milk Salt Infant Formula Weaning Cereals Soap Detergent Total Opening Stocks Scheduled Arrivals Under Existing Contracts (OFF) New Procurements MOT New Procurements WFP Planned Arrivals MOT/CPA Procurement OFF Unconfirmed Contracts Source: CPA Food Security Team Analysis of the food pipeline shows that, with the exception of tea, full rations are projected to be delivered this month. Tea will be cut to a half ration (100 grams per person), becauseFOUO Prepared by the Information Management Unit tea shipments will arrive in late April -- too late to be included in this month’s rations. May tea rations are expected to again be at the usual 200 grams per person amount. Heightened security issues, including the blockage of some major highways and the closure of the border crossing at Trebil (the western border of Iraq and Jordan), are delaying the delivery of commodities to several warehouses and silos, with the potential of isolated shortages in some parts of the country. CPA is working to identify alternate routes and modes of transportation for food items. IV. Improve Quality and Access to Healthcare Develop health care organizations, management, and infrastructure; Train health care professionals; Secure system; Public health; Pharmaceuticals logistic support; Strategic communications The MOH continues to address pharmaceutical shortages. The MOH, with the assistance of the CPA team, facilitated a $5M purchase of basic medicines, syrups and antibiotics from Iraqi companies. In addition, they arranged for a $10M purchase from international sources to address shortages of critical medicines, representing a two-month supply. V. Improve Quality and Access to Higher Education Oversee the basic administrative functions of higher education systems; Reform and reconstruct higher education institutions; Reintegrate the higher education institutions in the North with the rest of the country; Reintegrate Iraqi students, scholars, and scientists into the broader intellectual community; Launch a review and reform of the curriculum in all disciplines; Provide access to essential information Three governorates in northern Iraq announced plans to open new colleges or universities based on American models. Sulaimani is looking to begin a university to be called The American University of Iraq in Sulaimani, with a concentration in Business Administration, free-market Economics, and Computer Science and Technology. The city of Erbil is planning on starting an independent, private American-style Liberal Arts University, and the University of Dohuk is looking to begin a College of Humanities/Democratic Studies this fall. All three are seeking additional financial help and partnerships for academic support with American universities. The Council of University Presidents issued a statement of Academic Freedom and Responsibilities, which the Ministry of Higher Education printed as posters for all 20 Iraqi universities. It asserts the rights of free inquiry, expression, thought, and belief on each campus. It forbids any form of political or sectarian coercion or intimidation. In addition, it reserves the right to expel anyone who would attempt to prevent the open exercise of teaching, learning, researching or writing. FOUO Prepared by the Information Management Unit 7 VI. Improve Water Resources Management Prepare for sovereignty; Build ministry capacity; Infrastructure improvements; Facilities improvements The following chart indicates weekly water reservoir storage from six hydroelectric dams on both the Tigris and Euphrates Rivers. Habbaniyah Lake is used as both a Euphrates river and Tigris river bypass for flood control and to provide irrigation water. Weekly Reservoir Storage Billions of Cubic Meters 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 Observed Normal for end of Mar Mosul Dokan Adhaim Haditha Habbaniyah Derbendikhan Hemrin Source: Ministry of Water Resources Storage levels of the observed hydroelectric dams are low in comparison to their monthly averages because the months of March through May are considered the heavy flooding season, with April being the peak. Thus, dam reservoir levels have been lowered in anticipation of having to “catch” runoff for downstream flood control. VII. Restore Economically – Strategic Transportation Infrastructure Enable Iraqi civil aviation to prepare for international commercial aviation and cargo service; Enable Iraqi Port Authority (IPA) to administer a port of call with intermodal capabilities and inland container distribution; Enable Iraqi Railroad Railways (IRR) to provide domestic and international passenger and freight capabilities; Reform Civil Service at Ministry of Transportation (MOT) For the week of March 29-April 4, Baghdad International Airport (BIAP) reported a daily average of 53 military departures and 10 civilian departures; Basrah reported 49 military departures, 4 civilian departures; and Mosul reported 42 military departures, 2 civilian departures. The military statistics include fixed wing and rotary aircraft. To date, approximately 20 buildings have been returned to MOT control from the Coalition Forces. However, with the redeployment of the 1st Armored Division (1AD), discussions are underway to return some or all of these properties to the military in support of on-going requirements. None of the buildings under discussion have been reoccupied by the Iraqis. FOUO Prepared by the Information Management Unit 8 The transfer of additional buildings to the MOT from the military has been placed on hold pending clarification from 1AD as to their requirements. Iraqi Republic Railways has received two more Ukrainian-built mainline locomotives. In total, thirty locomotives are expected. VIII. Reconstitute Oil Infrastructure Production/Exports; Product Supply; Security; Structural Reform On April 1, the CPA increased the goal for oil production to 2.5 MBPD and the export goal increased to 1.6 MBPD. The graph below shows the daily crude oil production in Iraq over the past nine months. The dashed black line is the current production target goal of 2.5 million barrels per day (MBPD). For the week of April 3-9, the estimated average total crude oil production was 2.47 MBPD (0.57 MBPD in the south and 1.90 MBPD in the north). The average crude oil export for the past 30 days was 1.79 MBPD. The average price received for crude oil exports was approximately $26 per barrel. Crude Oil Production (Weekly Average) 3.0 2.5 Millions of Barrels per day 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 Jun 10 Jun 24 Jul 9 Jul 23 Aug 6 Aug 20 Sep 3 Sep 17 Oct 01 Oct 15 Oct 29 Nov 12 Nov 26 Dec 10 Week Ending Dec 24 Jan 7 Jan 21 Feb 4 Feb 18 Mar 3 Mar 17 Mar 31 North South Total Production Target Source: CPA Senior Advisor to the Ministry of Oil On April 1, the estimated daily demand for all fuels changed. Gasoline increased to 19 million liters (ML) from 17 ML; LPG demand decreased to 4,500 metric tons from 5,500 metric tons; kerosene demand decreased to 6 ML from 9 ML; diesel demand increased to 18.5 ML from 18 ML. FOUO Prepared by the Information Management Unit 9 The following table shows the four main fuels in Iraq (diesel, kerosene, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), and gasoline), the estimated total national daily demand for each, and the percentage of fuel supply that is on hand (weekly average) out of total demand. FUELS ESTIMATED DAILY AVERAGE DAILY % OF ESTIMATED DEMAND DEMAND ON HAND (O/H) ON HAND SUPPLY Diesel 18.5 million liters (ML) 19.373 ML 105 % Kerosene 6 million liters (ML) 6.02 ML 101 % LPG 4,500 metric tons 3,965 metric tons 88% Gasoline 19 million liters (ML) 17.731 ML 93% Source: CPA Senior Advisor to the Ministry of Oil The graph below shows the total daily supply (domestic production plus imports) for each of the four refined fuel products as a percentage of estimated domestic demand over the past six months. A recent reduction in the estimated daily demand for kerosene explains the spike in late March. Domestic production of kerosene will exceed demand as warmer weather continues, leading to reduced import requirements. Production & Imports as % of Estimated Demand (Weekly Average) 250% 10 200% 150% 100% 50% 0% Oct 08 Oct 15 Oct 22 Oct 29 Nov 5 Nov 12 Nov 19 Nov 26 Dec 3 Dec 10 Dec 17 Dec 24 Dec 31 Jan 7 Jan 14 Jan 21 Jan 28 Feb 4 Feb 11 Feb 18 Feb 25 Mar 3 Mar 10 Mar 17 Mar 24 Mar 31 Apr 7 Week Ending Kerosene Gasoline LPG Diesel Source: CPA Senior Advisor to the Ministry of OilFOUO Prepared by the Information Management Unit The chart below shows the days of supply on hand on April 9 for each of the four main fuel products in Iraq. The CPA goal remains to have 15 days of supply (DOS) on hand for each fuel source in every region. This week, all CPA regions met the 15 DOS target for kerosene. The South met its target for LPG. April 9: Percent of Stock Objective (15 DOS) for Fuel in Iraq 500.0% 450.0% 400.0% 350.0% 300.0% 250.0% 200.0% 150.0% 100.0% 50.0% 0.0% North Baghdad South Central South Diesel 54.4% 53.0% 9.1% 30.7% Kerosene 296.2% 487.7% 177.8% 155.4% Benzene 53.0% 37.9% 12.0% 70.6% Liquid Propane Gas (LPG) 62.6% 48.6% 8.9% 295.5% Source: CPA Senior Advisor to the Ministry of Oil 11 FOUO Prepared by the Information Management Unit