النص مستخرج آلياً من صورة الوثيقة أو من ملف قديم، وقد يحتوي أخطاء في بعض الكلمات أو ترتيب الأسطر. الملف الأصلي هو المرجع.
Iraq: I&W of Civil Confilet Key Reads:
Political / religlous leaders increase public hostile rhetoric Political / religious leaders lose moderating influence over constituents Provocative sectarlan attacks / assassinations Unorganized spontaneous mass civil conflict Additional Indicators:
Index of Civil Conflict (Astessed) Militias expand security role Govemance Police Ineffectual Army Ineffectual Neighbors enable violence Sectarian tensions / violence displace populace Sectarian conflicts between/within IS forces 4 IS refuse to take orders from central goverment, mass desertion Kurdish accelerate moves toward secession / annexing Kirkuk Low level violence motivated by sectarian differences CHANGE SINCE
•CRITICAL
I ROUTINE
ERREGULAR ASIONIFICANT
$ LAST WEEK
Urban areas experiencing
i "ethnic clearing* campalans to consolidate control ... Violence at all-time high/and &preading geographically.
16 001 05
(U) Political / religious leaders increase public hostile rhetoric - No change
(U) Pol/Rel leaders lose moderating influence over constituents - No change
(U) Provocative sectarian attacks / assassinations - No change
(U) Unorganized spontaneous mass civil conflict - No change
(U) Militias expand security role - No change fortette Her MeFt Governance - Status quo update: 11 Oct, CoR passed the Regions law, which species mechanics for forming federal regions no pange enore in per apron of masha a on with he conta one shen an in a rote
(U) Police Ineffectual - No change
(U) Army Ineffectual - No change
(U) Regional Nations Incite / Support Violence - No change
(U) Sectarian tensions / violence displace populace - No change; status quo update: UN report alleges 364k displaced since 22 Feb; number much higher than MODM, which estimates ~290K.
(OHREL to USA, MeFt) Sectarian conflicts between/within ISF forces - Increase reflects general atmospherics CF see lA as a viable force against militia due to their loyalty and levels effecaveness ....
IP is
between ISF forces
mostly considered infitrated by militiamen and less trustworthy... this is highlight most recently in Diwaniyah where conditions remained tense following 8 Oct confrontation between ISF.
CF and JAM .., 9 Oct, a joint CF, lA patrol on a routine mission in Diwaniyah stopped to speak with iP at a checkpoint when they were attacked by a group, some oi which were wearing IP uniforms.
(U) ISF refuse to take orders from central goverment, mass desertion - Decreased due to no recent events, but conditions remain for another event to occur.
(U)Kurdish moves toward secession/ annexing Kirkuk - 8 Oct, Cadir Aziz, Kurdistan TOilers Party leader statec Kirkuk Shia Arab leaders had a list of 700 families willing to relocate to southem Iraq if compensated with land anc $10,000 per family ... Shia wili not be forced to leave, but encouraged.
) Low leve, violence focused on sectarian differences - No change... status quo update: majority of violenc ontinues to be within Baghdad although there has been an increase in southern Salah ad Din province, along with tr Baghdad Southern belt.
Assessment: (CHAEL-TO-UsA, Mert, Violence levels are at an all time high ... majority of violence still located i saghdad but there has been an Increase in the outiying areas outside of Baghdad and Diyala such as the Baghdac Southern belt (Mahmudiyah, Iskandariyah, Suwayrah) and Southern Salah äd Din province (Balad) So dis 11195/20166: Reters, BA 6 - 1200 Pt Remens 19a Pa ement Approves Federal as Relax, 1612225100 To6:
(b)(3): 10 USC §130b,(b)(6) Previered by:
1
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(b)(6)
--Orlainal Message-
From: (b)(3) 10 USC §130b, Sent: Tuesday, October 17, 2006 1:50 PM TOL CUSTER J BG
(b)(6)
Cc: (bY(6)
DIAL N BG;
CAPT; MOORE B MR (SES)
Subject:
CLASSIFICATION: UNCLASSIFIED
CAVEATS: NONE •
TERMS: NONE
Sir,
We just wanted to give you a headsup that we did move the overall indicator to the right one click on the I&W slide for tomorrow morning. The main contributing factor to the move was due to the continual increase in the critical violence levels.
If you have any questions please let us know and have a great day!
vir
(b)(3): 10 USC §130c, (b)(6) CENTCOM Iraq Team Booz / Allen / Hamilton
(b)(3): 10 U.
DSN (b)(3): 10 USC
$130b.(b)(6)
CLASSIFICATION W/O ATCH: 9E0RET
CAVEATS W/O ATCH: REL TO
TERMS W/O ATCH: NONE
CLASSIFICATION: UNCLASSIFIED
CAVEATS: NONE
TERMS: NONE
CLASSIFICATION: UNCLASSIFIED
CAVEATS: NONE
2/23/2007