07-F-2106 DOC 04 Redacted

_ ___ ......... . - -- •, United Nations Monitoring and Verification · inspection Commission (UNMOVIC) and International Ato,nic Energy Agency (IAEA) .. Support (U) - 25 Nov 02 81&5311 d "'" 99111 IOU, IIIQ . · _ ac alcul', azr 11 - 1 1112M1212:38 Introducdon ---- .. ••••·· • ·Purpose • . US N~tional Objectives • . Strate. gic Context . • UNMOVIC Timeline · • Operational Assumptions • General Operational Support Concept • Course Of Action (COA) Assessment · • Recommendations · . · 2 1112!5/02 12:30 •••sz1 ·Purpose ·. ___ .......... . • Inform senior leadership of key issues and make recommendations concerning USG support to United · Nations Monitoring, Verification, and Inspection Commission (UNMOVIC) and International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) · · • Obtain policy guidance 3 1112!W2 12:36 · 81!!9FI .. · · US Nadonal Objecti,ves ___ ......... , . . . ' . • Maintain preparedness to remove weapons of mass destruction and delivery means from Iraq • · . Compliance· with UNSCR 1441 • · Accountability for actions not in compliance • · international support for thresholds for "Use of Force" . . • Documentation for the International Community of · Iraqi violations of UNSCR 1441 • · Regime convinced that non-compliance will result ~n swift military action - pressure must sustain or • increase 11/25/0212:38 · ...... -- ----------- - ------- - - - -- - .. Strategic Context · --- ......... . • NSPD-21 states: - Subject to criteria contained In NSPD, the US will provide full support to UNMOVIC and IAEA In Iraq - US· will respond to UNMOVIC and IAEA requests as well as suggest support sufficient to meet UMMOVIC objectives • Demonstrated support of UN proces· ses preserves US role • US participation facilitates rigor of UNMOVIC and IAEA inspections • 5 11/2.Ml212;36 918ft!M ~~ -· Strategic Context - · What we think UNMOVIC Wants · - ___ ......... . -• lndepende_ nce ... responsive only to UNSC • International, to include USG, support • Perceived as "Fair & Neutral" _ - Not necessarily aggressive - . - Cooperative vice confrontational - - M~lti-disciplinary inspection process _ · • Operation· a1 security •.. of intelligence and · - inspectors .. • Focus on inspecting, no~ judging 6 . - 11/25/02 12:38 111n1, ------------ ----- -·····--· -- ------------------------------------- -UNMOVIC Timeline ___ ......... . . . 8 Nov: UNSCR 1441 Passage 27 Nov: . Inspections begin in Iraq UNMOVIC Meetin gin NY 8 Dec: Iraqi WMD Declaration due in 30 days 23 Dec: lnspecti ans start no later than 45 days after UNSCR passag e 25 Jan: Earliest Inspection update to Security Council ___ __. ,. 1 • 1 26 Nov: Deputies Committee Meeting 25 Nov: Operations Deputies TANK Brief Proliferation Strategy Policy Coordination Committee at NSC Service Chiefs TANK Brief 7 1112M>2 12:38 '911AI!, . Operational Assumptions ' ---------: • 111 • Anticipate size and scope of UNMOVIC and IAEA wiU gradually increase - Likely integrate UK, French, and other systems • Precise location of U~MOVIC and IAEA inspectors · may not be known • ISR resources currently deployed suggest a two- phased approach {immediate and longer-term) 8 11/25I02 12:36 -•A&> _ General Operational Support Concept ___ ......... . ~1) 9 11125,102 12:38 .. , . COA 1 - UNMOVIC Support Concept (14 Nov) ___ .... , •••... 10 11/25102 12:H I COA 2 - Intermediate Soludon ___ ......... . (b)(J) 11 11'2SID2 12::Jt as a ------------- · .. COA 3 - UNMOVIC Dedicated Support ---11111 .. •••• II Ml) 12 11m.v212-.38 , I Subjective COA Assessment ___ .... I •••••• (l,Xl) 13 11125102 12:36 '"911777 Recommendations ___ ......... . ~l) 14 1112!102 12'.M !IIRET ·Key Issues . t ___ ......... . . ' ' . I • To what extent will USG and coalition continue to conduct Operations NORTHERN WATCH (ONW) and SOUTHERN WATCH (OSW)? - Deconfllct (time & space) UNMOVIC supportwith ONW & OSW? ...:.. Limit ONW and OSW responses to self defense and prosecution . of no fly zone vlolators only? · - Provide force protection of UNMOVIC aerial surveillance assets? • Can USG and coalition continue to conduct asymmetric responses options with uncertain knowledge of .. inspector location? • At what cost to current operations will the USG support UNMOVIC and IAEA aerial surveillance requests? · : 1 15 1112Ml2 12:36 ' . ---- ......... . QUESTIONS 16 1112MJ212:38 •••n•