08-F-1338 CPA 797 Combating the Anti-TAL Campaign March-24-2004

BAGHDAD 00128 Laserl: ACTION: EXEC INFO: COS IPC DISSEMINATION: EXEC /1 CHARGE: PROG APPROVED: GOVERNANCE/MOSULLIVA RJONES DRAFTED: CLEARED: MOSULLIVAN, JLECROY VZCZCBGI208 RR RUEKJCS RUEHC RHEHNSC RUEHC DE RUEHGB #0128/01 0841111 ZNY CCCCC ZZH IMAR 24-004 R 241111Z MAR 04 FM CPA BAGHDAD TO RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC 0255 RUEHC/ SECSTATE WASHDC 0263 RHEHNSC/WHITE HOUSE NSC WASHDC 0248 INFO RUEHC/ IRAQC COLLECTIVE SECTION 01 OF 04 BAGHDAD 000128 TAGS: PREL, PGOV, SUBJECT: CPA 797: Combating the Anti-TAL Campaign religious shi'a elements, efforts to discredit the TAL are taking immediate and exerted people about the benefits of the TAL and how it is their surest path to elections and democracy. provides some analysis of the rejectionist movement and lays out a public and political strategy for countering it. End Summary. Orchestrated Opposition to the TAL ------- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 2. CPA has growing evidence of a mounting campaign against the Opposition to key provisions of the TAI by Sistani and were apparent when a group delav of the sianina of Shi'a members forced the TAL in order to consult more intensively in Najaf. time, GC members Chalabi, Mowaffak, Bahr Al-Uloom, 00128 BAGHDAD BAGHDAD 00128 61(C), that dealing with constitutional ratification. Hate quest one how a he late odd done curationtal. private concerns about giving a veto over the constitution to the Kurds were replaced with constitutional ratification procedures would result in an endless cycle of a failed referendum, dissolved assembly, new elections, and renewed drafting. A recent pamphlet in the mosques objects to the TAI on the grounds that the interim (unelected) government has too much power; the TAL divides Iraq and establishes the role of Islam is too qualified; person presidency council will paralyze action and serve as a justification for continued U.S. meddling; and the interim government could conclude CPA has not international forces stay in Iraq for decades. vet confirmed the origins of the pamphlet, but it is to be distributed by Sistani's representatives in the provinces. Regardless of Sistani's connections with this particular pamphlet, other sources confirm Sistani espouses these views. He is reportedly despondent about the TAL and has decided to disengage from political discussions with the United Nations on the interim government unless the body disavows the TAL. (b1) As Sistani's opposition to the TAL has broadened we hear increasing and become reports to discredit particularly in the south churning efforts the pamphlet mentioned above (which has been spotted from Al Amarah to Baghdad), there and demonstrations against the TAL. is talk of petitions TAL have been Distortions and misinterpretations of the BAGHDAD 00128 BAGHDAD 00128 discussed in mosques. (b)(1) Our TAL Counteroffensive Despite the gathering storm, CPA believes that the Coalition is reasonably well-positioned to head off the campaign or at least minimize the damage that it does to The TAL is an the TAL and Coalition and Iraqi interests. articles that will have extraordinary document, with many Many of focus groups great and inherent appeal to Iraqis. informal discussions nationwide tell us that Iraqis are seizing on the document, asking questions and expressing their interest in it and concerns over it. been particularly well-received in the north, where Kurdish Leaders have trumpeted the achievements of the TAL for the Kurdish people and played down the areas in which the Kurds compromised. however, take the challenge to the TAL We must, Abandonment of the TAL - or the greatest seriousness. even large-scale public opposition that persists into the period - would have disastrous post-June 30 transitional consequences for the Coalition's political fight over the TAL has enormous strategic implications for the future of democracy in Iraq, and our counteroffensive should be formulated in light of our larger political Our counteroffensive should be waaed strategy. aggressively, using all the considerable resources at our disposal. BAGHDAD 00128 BAGHDAD 00128 TAL includes an CPA's strategy for defending the approach to four main actors or groups of actors Iraqi public at large, Ayatollah Sistani, the Shi'a and Iraqi political figures outside the GC. months. Each element of this strategy is considered below. TAL Defense Strategy -=------- TAL Outreach Plan. CPA has devised a civic education campaign on the TAL that includes extensive materials, media activities, hall meetings. on using television - to get out the pro-TAL message. While this campaign is essential, CPA plans to be even more aggressive will make concerted in our efforts. efforts to target elite audiences and engage more thoroughly and directly on the specific issues on which the TAL is being attacked. In particular, CPA will take the following steps: CPA will -- Rebuttal Pamphlets. supplement its current specifically geared to address the charges made These pamphlets need not the TAL by its critics. againsets", explain the TAL by issuing "' rebuttal be detailed, but will focus on the big picture (how the TAL is the quickest and smoothest path to a democratic Iraq) two major criticisms intend to described above. distribute _ millions of the pamphlets throughout the country. CPA will intensify its efforts to use -- Using GC Members. creators and owners of the document. leveraging media coverage of GC members defending the TAL in the provinces. CPA will seek to organize "'TAL Tours," ' in which GC members would travel to several maior cities speeches, meet with local leaders and press. • Ambassador Bremer will focus his went come one en March promoting Aggressive use of Ambassador Bremer. agreement that should be the Iraqis prome in the TAL. BAGHDAD 00128 BAGHDAD 00128 But this should not exclude the involvement of Ambassador Bremer in the campaign. As CPA regional and governorate coordinators have repeatedly stressed, Ambassador Bremer has a great deal of unspent political investment to use some of inas capital. by giving two speeches about the TAL; gives the TAL in his dy there mind the tention niemey interaction with the Iraqi print and by publicly anc visibly associating himself with Iraqi leaders at the national and local level who are willing to promote the Ambassador Bremer had a successful town hall meeting in Najaf on March 23. with Sistani. CPA's message to TAL and welcome Sistani will explain our perspective on the his views on other upcoming political matters. The Shi'a Five. CPA will continue to engage with and will make all of the key Shi'a members of the GC, to all of them the importance of the TAL to the success of our common mission. (b)(1) BAGHDAD 00128 BAGHDAD 00128 (b) (1) Cultivate other Shi'a and Sunni leaders to support the TAL. CPA will, in conjunction with the United Nations, efforts in the political outreach intensify our general coming weeks. We will make particular efforts to CPA intends to incorporate the TAL into our engagements. launch political roundtables similar to the economic These groups will be gatherings it held last fall. as part of our broader political established efforts. Baghdad offices and governorate coordinators - particularly - will also closely monitor public statements of local political and religious figures. A special emphasis will be placed on Friday sermons, to be especially important CPA Headquarters has asked for specific reporting on this and has required GC's to make concerted efforts to meet with all prominent political explain the TAL and religious figures mischaracterizations. CPA efforts to further and influence the dynamics in the regions continue with a special session brining together all governorate coordinators to discuss the TAL on March BAGHDAD 00128 BAGHDAD 00128 Approach to the Annex. CPA anticipates a serious the Shi'a five to use the annex to the TAL to effort by "'correct": elements efforts strongly be there in me message set ene is not a place for amendments to the agreed text signed on March 8. (b(1) (b)(1) BREMER BT #0128 NNNN BAGHDAD 00128