Reading Lab · Dossier 11

Promise and reality: electricity

The CPA promised six thousand megawatts of electricity by summer 2004. The highest weekly average its own reports recorded was 4,594 MW. As the deadline approached, the deadline itself changed 2 times in its weekly reports.

6,000MW: the stated goal
4,594highest weekly average
3different deadlines for one goal
1 of 151days with a daily peak of 4,400 MW or more

Six thousand promised, four thousand delivered

Grey line: daily peak load · terracotta dots: weekly average · dashed lines: the 4,400 and 6,000 goals · squares: CPA statements · in megawatts.

One goal, a moving deadline

For each weekly report: the report week (circle) and the deadline it stated for 6,000 MW (square).

1

Established

The goal was not met: the highest weekly average in the reports was 4,594 MW (week of June 19-25), the highest daily peak in the tables 4,488 (2004-02-14). Not a single day came near 6,000.

ESS-454baded ESS-a5b69d49

2

Established

The moving deadline: “by 2004-07-01” (reports of 2004-02-06 – 2004-03-26), then “by 2004-06-01” (reports of 2004-04-02 – 2004-05-28), then “by 2004-06-30” (reports of 2004-06-04 – 2004-06-25).

ESS-4fe652d9 ESS-9b31d348 ESS-b68721f0

3

Established

“Back to pre-war levels” at 4,023 MW, says a February 2004 statement. But a report by the CPA itself puts the pre-war peak above 4,400.

PR-592fc16f ESS-dc759dd8

4

Established

The “record” the CPA announced days before leaving: 4,900 MW on a single day, 20 June 2004, while that week’s average was 4,594. Still about 1,100 short of the goal.

PR-f3b7be6b

5

Established

A promise kept: oil production exceeded the 2.0 million barrels a day target in January 2004 (2.14 million), according to the monthly report to Congress.

BUD-cbb864c2

6

Open question

How many hours of power reached homes? Peak load does not say, and demand by the same reports was about 5,500–6,000 MW.

Method, confidence and limits

Daily load: “Total Peak Load” from 152 daily Ministry of Electricity reports in the essential-services section, dated by the “Report Date” in the text. 1 values above 5,000 MW are marked doubtful (a likely OCR artefact) and left out of the line; they stay in the table.

Weekly average: “The seven-day average (…) of peak electricity production” from 17 weekly reports; the date is the end of the week named in the text (2004).

The deadline: the phrase “6,000 MW by …” in each weekly report that states it (17 reports), ordered by report week.

Limits: peak load is not total generation or hours of supply. The daily tables in the archive cover October 2003 – May 2004 only.

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