Reading Lab · Dossier 5

Stated figures

The number of police “on duty” in CPA statements rose and fell from week to week in summer 2003: 34,000 → 40,000 → 40,000 → 37,000 → 34,000 → 40,000 → 40,000. Months later one speaker said 60,000 were on the streets and another, the next day, “almost 8,000”, because he was counting something else.

10statements of police numbers

2times the “on duty” figure fell between statements

1figures on a different measure (under 15,000)

Police “on duty” as the statements gave it

Each point is a statement of the national figure in a release or briefing · the line joins statements in date order.

A moving baseline: “pre-war” and “at liberation”

Electricity values the statements called the pre-war level or the level at liberation, by statement date.

1

Established

Summer 2003: 34,000 → 40,000 → 40,000 → 37,000 → 34,000 → 40,000 → 40,000 police “on duty” or “on the streets” in 7 statements over seven weeks. The figure does not rise steadily as one would expect of a force being built.

TR-40872f8c TR-55cfb5bf TR-952c45fc TR-16a5563b

2

Likely

Two figures two days apart: “over 60,000 Iraqi police on the streets” (1 February 2004), then “we have almost 8,000 police” (2004-02-02) in the context of academy graduates. The two measures differ, and the statements do not distinguish them.

TR-f264a717 TR-5a2dcbbc

3

Likely

The “pre-war level” of electricity appears with different values: 4,200–4,400, 4400 MW, and “at liberation” 300 MW.

PR-f3b7be6b TR-0ca7efa6 TR-a5f1e8df TR-bf772fc2 Promise and reality →

4

Open question

Do two figures measure the same thing? “On duty” may mean trained, hired or present; the statements do not define the measure.

This dossier’s questions

TR-33fe6a53Iraqi police — serving: between 2003-08-08 and 2003-09-23 the statements give figures that rise and fall: 34,000 → 40,000 → 37,000 → 34,000 → 40,000 police. Which is authoritative, and why did it change?Likely

Method, confidence and limits

From press releases and briefings we extract recurring national figures (megawatts, police numbers, million barrels of oil a day) and classify them automatically as a target, a baseline (“pre-war”, “at liberation”) or a current figure. We ask when the same baseline changes, or when the current figure falls between close statements. The figures are established by the text; whether they measure the same thing is a question.

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