Minute reith to pso cds the statement of requirement sor of se iraq

BACKGROUND Administrative Divisions Ninawá mubaracat tar has 1B provinces engular mobita;ah* • Province capital Salah 1 As Sulaymániyan ad Din 2. Baghdad 3. Karbala Diyalá < Al Qadisivah Al Anbár Wäsit Maysan Dhi Qá: An Najaf SAI Basrah® Al Muthanná • There is now a need for an agreed Statement of Requirement (SOR) for the UK AOR • COS have been asked to agree that the initial UK AOR should be based on the provinces of Al Basrah and Maysan. However, with Div HQ deployed and probability of additional coalition troops. the UK has the potential to expand the AOR to include 2 other provinces • The additional provinces are probably Dhi-Qar and Wasit, although this is not yet formally agreed with CFLCC. For example US forces are now well established in Dhi-Qar and they may not wish to relinquish it in the short term. it is fast-becoming a logistic hub. Therefore, assuming the AO will be DECLASSIFIED Wasit. Diyala and Al Muthanna, is attached at Annex A Basrah City is vital ground, with strong demographic ties to Maysan The UK choice of initial AOR is sound • Distance is a factor if the UK expands its AOR. Logistically, based on the figures below, Dhi-Qar offers the shortest LoC. • The LoC from Al Basrah to Dhi-Qar province, and the main city of An Nasiriyah is 165 km. • The LoC from the Al Basrah to Diyala province, and the main city of Adb Allah Ba'Qubah Al Aba'iki, is 620 km long. The only major route also passes through Baghdad City • The LoC from Al Basrah to Wasit province, and the main city of Al Kut, is 310 km. • The LoC from Al Basrah to Al Muthanna, and the main town of As Samawah is 295 km • In terms of consent all less Diyala province should become relatively stable. This includes Dhi-Qar, despite heavy fighting during Phase 3. It should be noted that Wasit has a large Sunni minority, and some retribution between communities can be expected; this threat will diminish in the medium term. Sunni and Shia live in equal proportion in Diyala, and there is the potential for long term tension. The MEK also maintained a strong foothold in the area, and the residue may cause friction. • Al Muthanna is mostly desert, and has a population of less than 400,000. It is undemanding and potentially unrewarding. although it includes the area of a potential oilfield • On the basis of logistic complexity and concern over long term consent levels. Diyala is the only province of the 6 that the UK should actively seek to avoid. On the same basis Dhi-Qar is the most attractive, followed by Wasit or Al Muthanna STATEMENT OF REQUIREMENT (SOR) • Attached at Annex Bis the detailed SOR. broken down by province The SOR also extends to support required by CJTF t and to the Die HQ that DECLASSIFIED Dasiall n due nu, anu ox du win appropride megral combat Support (CS) and Combat Service Support (CSS). - A single BG, | • Maysan supported by a Formation / Light Reconnaissance (FR) coy. On current plans Maysan is grouped with A Basrah. • Wasit - A Bde HQ, and 2 x BG with appropriate integral Combat Support (CS) and Combat Service Support (CSS). • Dhi-Qar - A Bde HQ, and 2 x BG with appropriate integral Combat Support (CS) and Combat Service Support (CSS). • Diyala - A Bde HQ, and 3 x BG with appropriate integral Combat Support (CS) and Combat Service Support (CSS). • Al Muthanna - A Bde HQ(-), and a single BG, supported by a Formation / Light Reconnaissance (FR) coy and appropriate integral Combat Support (CS) and Combat Service Support (CSS). FORCE GENERATION • As the UK generates a force for SE Iraq, this SOR offers a starting point for discussion with potential troop contributing nations (TCN). However, it is a living document and will require refining prior to any force generation conference • During low level talks both DK and NL showed preference for Al Basrah province, the nearer the sea the better. This will probably be the trend and will require diplomacy to achieve final agreement. SUMMARY • The UK should avoid Diyala province. The final AOR would therefore be based on 4 of the remaining 5 provinces. There are logistic advantages in ensuring that Dhi-Qar is one. • Wasit or Al Muthanna are the likely options for the 4'"' province Both have advantages Al Muthanna is the simpler task, requiring less troops. Wasit is more demanding. requires more troops. but offers a significant role DECLASSIFIED Lt Gen CJO Annexes An Assessment of Provinces for Inclusion in UK Area of Responsibility. The Statement of Requirement for MND-SE. DECLASSIFIED DECLASSIFIED CONFIDENTIAL ANNEX A P/PJHQ/8135/5/12/1 ASSESSMENT OF PROVINCE IN UK AOR DATED 15 APR 03 Province: Wasit Area 17,153 km Population 866,000 (population density-50.5/sq km) Major Cities Al-Kut; Al Hay; An Nuymaniyah; Az Zubaydiyah Shia/Sunni Ethnic Make-up Factors Poor. The principle centre of population in the Wasit Governance lies in Al Kut, the total population being roughly 700. • Economy 000. The population is assessed to be principally Shia, but its geographic position closer to the centre of Iraq could see a greater Sunni percentage than the more southern governates. The region is assessed to have no oil production nue in lincole commi intu no Be on the region vil eager teal with extensive South along the well-established and utilised route 6. • Infrastructure Airfields- Ubaydah Bin Al Jarrah, Shakh Mazhar, An Nuymaniyah, Kut Al Hay; Railway - yes. A medium term threat from small groups of irregulars will continue to exist whilst they have any residual support from • Residual the local civilian population. As the restructuring work post-war gains momentum and law and order and governmental Threats institutes begin to function again, expect this threat to diminish. Consent Low-High levels of consent. Revenge and retribution between communities potentially high; large Sunni population Assessment Wasit has the potential to be the most unstable of the 4 governates. A-1 of 6 DEADASSIFIED DEGLASSIFIED Province: Al-Basrah Area 19,070 km Population 1,337,600 (population density-70.1/sq km) Major Cities Basrah, Umm Qasr. Safwan Shia Ethnic Make-up Factors Good. The principle centre of population is Al Basrah, the total population being roughly 1.5M. The region • Economy encompasses major oilfields, has a large oil infrastructure and contains the country's only port. The potential for economic growth in this area is probably higher than anywhere else in Iraq. Infrastructure Airfields - Basrah Intl (C5/Antonov), Safwan (C130); Railway - yes; Sea Ports - Umm Qasr (11m/35k dwt), Az Zubayr (9m dwt); Oil facilities - Al Faw, Khawr Al Amaya (non-operational), Mina Al Bakr Iranian backed / influenced groups will continue to try to exert influence in the region; this is expected to be a short to • Residual Threats medium term threat. The extent of threat from PM will be influenced by the tolerance of the community; as confidence in the Coalition's presence builds this threat is expected to diminish. Consent High level of consent. Strong economy with potential for rapid growth. Anti-Regime. Border province - Iranian influence. Assessment Al Basrah should be the most stable of the provinces in terms of threat environment, but the size of the population will bring its own inherent problems. A-2 of 6 DECLASSIFIED DEOEASOIFIED Province: Maysan Area 16,072 km2 747,600 (population density-46.5/sq km) Population Major Cities Al Amarah, Ali Al Gharbi, Qal At Salih, Al Majarr Al Kabir Shia Ethnic Make-up Factors Minimal. The principle centre of population is in Al Amarah, the total population being roughly 600 000. Even though - • Economy the region has no oil production infrastructure or any major industry the majority of the region is agricultural with extensive irrigated areas • Infrastructure Airfields - Al Amarah (C130), Qalat Salih (C5), Railway - Yes • Residual Aside from small groups of irregulars, expect a relatively low level of residual threat in this governate. As for other Threats areas, the ability of these groups to continue to influence and to blend in with the civilian population will dimish as the post-war reconstruction gathers momentum. Consent Medium-High levels of consent. Tensions between MEK and local population high. Border province - Iranian influence Tribes are anti-Regime. Assessment Generally, Maysan should be relatively stable. A-3 of 6 DECNASSIFIED DEGEASSIFIED Province: Dhi Qar Area 12,900 km Population 1,412,600 (population density-109.5/sq km) Major Cities An Nasiriyah, Ash Shatrah, Ar Rifa, Qal At Sukkar Shia Ethnic Make-up Factors Poor. The principle centre of population is in An Nasiriyah, the total population being roughly 800 000. The region has • Economy minimal oil production infrastructure and some industry; however, the majority of the region has little agriculture. • Infrastructure Airfields- Tallil (C130), Qal At Sikar (C5); Railway - yes. Aside from small groups of irregulars, we expect a relatively low level of residual threat in this governate. As for other • Residual Threats areas, the ability of these groups to continue to influence and to blend in with the civilian population will dimish as the Consent Medium-High levels of consent. Poor region. Tribal insurrection since 1991. Tensions between MEK and local population high. Assessment Generally, Dhi Qar should be relatively stable A-4 of 6 DECФA881FIED DEGEASSIFIED Province: Al Muthanna Area 51,740 km? Population 484,400 (population density-9.4/sq km) Major Cities As Samawah, Al Khidr Shia Ethnic Make-up Factors Poor. A largely desert area. Some of the national north-south oil pipeline infrastructure runs through As Samawah, but • Economy that aside there is no evidence of any significant economic drivers. • There are no airfields or railways of note and no significant highways. Infrastructure • Residual A largely benign area of Iraq which is sparsely populated and bordered by Saudi Arabia. There is a possibility that the long-running border dispute with the Saudis could re-emerge in the aftermath of the war, but this is unlikely to pose a Threats direct threat to Coalition activities. That aside, we assess that there is no discernible threat, residual or otherwise to Coalition forces. Consent High level of consent. Assessment Al Muthanna should be very stable and require minimal military presence due the large unpopulated parts of the province A-5 of 6 DEGLASCIFIED DECLASSIFIED Province: Diyala Area 17,685 km 1,474,00 (population density-83.3/sq km) Population Ba' qubah, Khan Bani Sad, Subakhu, Salum Major Cities Shia/Sunni Ethnic Make-up Factors Good. The principle city in the region is Ba' qubah which is linked closely to the oil industry. The region has a history of • Economy good trade routes and practices despite religious divides. • Infrastructure Airfields. Subakhu (C130), Ba qubah (C5), Khan Bani Sad (C130); Railway - No. Oil pipelines to Khanagin; • Residual One MeK camp is located north of Ba'qubah; the current status of the camp is unknown. There is liable to be a degree Threats of Iranian influence due to the proximity of the border, but Shia does not dominate the ethnic mixture in this region, thus any influence exerted by the Iranians will be limited. It is assessed that there is no discernible residual threat to Coalition forces. Medium level of consent. Consent Assessment Diyala should be stable, but due to the potential for Iranian and MeK interaction and religious differences, the need to maintain a potent military presence is required A-6 of 6 DEGLASSIFIED