Telegram 147 iraqrep to fco london iraq assessment and recommendations

1. Two issues are sapping our ability to deliver a successful transition in Irag: growing insecurity and the inadequate supply of essential services. There are no quick solutions. Much is already being done to improve matters, but we need continued determination, proper focus and more resources to turn the situation round. need to speed up the transfer of power and responsibility back to the Iragis. The decision on the appointment of Ministers last Sunday was We now need the Iraqis to set out a a vital step in this process. clear timetable for the constitutional conference and the election of a sovereign government. DETAIL SECURITY 2. Our security problems have worsened. We were already having to deal with regular, low level attacks on US forces in Baghdad and the Sunni triangle and high crime rates including looting and smuggling. They have been joined by terrorist attacks, the most serious of which have been the bombings of the Jordanian Embassy and the UN headquarters and the assassination of Ayatollah al Hakim in Najaf, and the sabotage of key pipelines. The degree to which this terrorism is indigenous or the work of external elements (al Qaeda, rAnsar al Islam) or Sunni fundamentalists (Wahabis, Salifis) is still unclear. But we are beginning to see a climate of instability which could start to erode the Coalitions political and moral authority and shake the confidence of the international community and the Iraqi people. 3. The key to improving security is better intelligence and greater have Iragi involvement. are closely linked because Iragis the best access to information about what is happening in their own It also matches the wish of the Governing Council to see an country. Iraqi face on security. Bremer, who has just returned from the US, has asked for the following steps to be taken: PAGE 1 DEGLASS. ED speed up the creation of the new rag- army; on present plans this Bremer would like to should reach 30,000 men within two years. The army is not intended to have a achieve this within 12 months. role in internal security, but it would be tasked to control Irags ¡ borders. 4. There are two constraints on doing this quickly: training and At present resources are available to equip these Iragi forces with weapons and uniforms, but there is no money for training - a huge task - or equipment like vehicles and communications. Substantial new money and a small army of instructors will have to be found. ESSENTIAL SERVICES 5. The riots in Basra last month were a sharp reminder that continuing shortages of electricity and fuel have a direct bearing on security and on how Iraqis judge the Coalitions performance. worn out infrastructure has been further degraded by widespread looting, smuggling and sabotage. Yesterday Iraq produced 1.7 mod of 0.5 mbd had to be re-injected because a pipeline carrying oil to a refinery was sabotaged. Sabotage of the main oil pipeline to Turkey took two weeks to repair and cost Iraq (and the CPA) 10 million dollars a day in revenue. slow to recognise the scale of the 6. Although the CPA was infrastructure problems and put action in hand to deal with them, the conference in Tampa bringing together the military, CPA and civilian But this will contractors has drawn up a programme of action. Bremers solution is simple: mitigate rather than solve the problem. a massive injection of funds to kick start the renewal of Irags infrastructure. He has bid for up to 18 billion dollars (7 billion dollars for power sector, 4 billion for water and sanitation and 5 Whether the Administration billion for security and the military). submits or Congress approves funding on this scale is likely to have a decisive impact on Iraqs future. PAGE 2 DECLARETED - which will establish a sovereign government and bring the occupacion to an end. The absence of a timetable is undermining both the Governing Council and the Coalition. RECOMMENDATION ) now face stem from inadequate planning 8. Many of the problems we before the war, a failure to stamp Coalition authority at the outset, and a slow and unfocussed start to the reconstruction. Mistakes have been put right, but we are going to need more resources. Much depends on the Americans and the commitment they are prepared to make. However costly getting Iraq right will be, the cost of failure will The UK cannot match US spending power, but it will have be greater. There are a number of to commit more financial and human resources. areas where we can make a real difference: - more training for the police The idea of training Iragi police in Hungary appears to have been The new plan, if the finances can be shelved, at least for now. found, is to establish a police training school in a former military This will base to train up to 3,000 Iraqi police every 8 weeks. require up to 600 police instructors. Many more experienced policemen will be needed in the field to provide mentoring and support. The UK should aim to provide 100 plus serving or retired officers. I understand that security concerns have been a constraint on deployment but the police training school would provide a secure environment in which they could work. An effective police force is a key part of our exit strategy. - more money for essential services, especially in the South The UK cannot match US funding (some of which will need to flow to the South which is why we need to be careful about talking too loudly about a British Sector). But we should nevertheless focus a to go get old and to on ay (Hilary Synnott has already made additional resources on the South recommendation in Basra telno 10). We should also supply electrical PAGE 3 DEULASE FIED We are already discussing a new UN resolution which would include a We shall call on the Governing Coucil to produce such a timetable. ) also need to step up pressure here to get the right outcome. - provide proper support and funding for the new UK staff in Iraq UK staffing in CPA Baghdad is about right. Hilary Synnott has made Leaving separate recommendations about staffing CPA South in Basra. aside Basra, the UK is about to lead governance teams in three other Iraqi provinces. The team leaders have been identified but we need to ensure that they have adequate supporting staff and funds In the immediately at their disposal for quick impact projects. first instance I recommend each of the team leaders be given 1 This would parallel million pounds to spend at their discrection. the funds already available to the military for quick impact We also need to ensure that we have adequate funds to projects. finance the security arrangements which are essential if staff throughout Iraq are able to do their jobs effectively. RICHMOND YYYY DISTRIBUTION 13 MAIN IRAQ/KUWAIT 13 IRAQ POLICY UNIT 0 • CONSULAR D PROTOCOL D// PALACE 000 PS MR RAMMELL ***ADD RELEVANT GEOG DEPT] [***ADD RELEVANT GEOG DIR] 2 ADVANCE PAGE 4