Telegram 03 iraqrep to fco london iraq political process

Auto forwarded by a Rule ZCZC MDDPAN 4084 SLAN 5298 ESTRICTED DD 120730Z FCOLN 00 INTRA TRESY FM IRAQR TO FCOLN 120630Z MAY GRS 1159 RESTRICTED FM IRAQREP TO DESKBY 120730Z FCO TELNO 3 OF 120630Z MAY 03 INFO IMMEDIATE EU POSTS, EU ENLARGEMENT POSTS, MIDDLE EAST POSTS INFO IMMEDIATE SECURITY COUNCIL POSTS, CANBERRA, OTTAWA, NEW DELHI INFO IMMEDIATE PRETORIA/CAPETOWN, INFO IMMEDIATE HMT, MODUK, PJHQ, FROM UK SPECIAL REPRESENTATIVE FOR IRAQ SUBJECT: IRAQ: POLITICAL PROCESS SUMMARY 1. Iraq's emerging political leaders are working together surprisingly well and the process is gaining momentum. al-Da' awa. They have a Joint Secretariat, and their hinking is coalescing around plans for a National Conference which are close to our own. They want an Interim Authority to be more like a transitional government, and there are bound to be arguments about the Authority's powers, and who should play which My main concerns are that most of the politicians are sti Part. not engaging with ordinary Iraqis, in part as there is no local media to play to; and that the level of popular grievances could give rise to new, street based movements with whomit will be hard to work. But the picture could be a lot worse. DETAIL In my first few days in Baghdad With each first can days Aziz al Hakim (SCIRI), and' shorter sessions with Yannadam anana Page 1 123 DECLASSIFIED Islamist Party, al Da awa, and the old (Sunn) Arab Nationalists represented by Chadirchi. Pachachi, and the Iraqi The elderly Sunn Communists had not join the leadership group on the said they would but were prepared to be part of a grounds that it was a US creation, Pachachi for a national conference. had arasidered furthe considered further and said he'd now like to join the n the Yeadersach is now being made. Other smaller parties are also on board though, rightly, the smaller ones are being away. porte, turned no 5. Conference, is beginning work a National how to set up A Joint secretariat of the Leadership Group has been set up and thinking is close to ours on the mix of externals and internals, the inclusion of need for regional representation based on population, minorities and professional groups and the importance of securing have pressed hard with them all women's participation (a point I raised the idea of a prior women's conference). They want to work with the coalition, and we and the US team on this issue (Crocker Carpenter and DiRita - Khalilzad has been dropped) have very similar ideas. is advance team are Bremer's views are not yet known, suadestino I don't think that he might want to slow things down. Nould be wise - we need to take the tide at the flood - but I will talk it through with him. The party leaders themselves are pressing for responsibility and They want the tease hay eye a the ta a natch a rom he van the coalition in putting Iraq back on its feet. are united in criticising the performance of ORHA and the US military, we will need to lower their ambitions security and reconstruction. to get their acceptance of a more modest Interim Authority. 7. Some specific observations: - Barzani and Talabani are both as pleased as punch to be in Baghdad They are co-operating well with one and to the fore in the process. Both want a single Kurdish another, but wary of who might gain more. Talabani proposed Barzani should be entity within a Federated Iraq. the first head of the Interim Authority (no doubt with an eye to leaving Kurdistan under PUK sway). for other left of centre allies and is developing a pragmatic and Be are on a regret Ingring friendly relationship with chalabi. - there seems to be some Arab resentment of the prominent kurdish role, The KDP/PUK dea to bring Peshmerga to Baghdad to help with security would not be widely welcomed. - Shia/Sunni tensions have been remarkably low. Page 2 DECI ASSIFIED Lnemselves out. Ine emergence of Chadircht and Pachachi suggests that they will be figure-heads at two old nationaliststirst and that Sunni politics may not take shape for some months. The shadow of the Ba'ath still hangs over So far the Iraq Islamic Party (Iraq's Muslim Brotherhood) have yet to be really prominent either. COMMENT Iraq of late, and grievances and concerns are not There cou yet being channelled into the political parties. surprisese tahis stre resuan soon forhere memaing goed alay to SAWERS Contact: YYYY MAIN 13 IRAQ/KUWAIT 13 MENAD 0 CONSULAR D PROTOCOL D//PALACE 2 ADVANCE • IRAQ/KUWAIT PS 1 ADDITIONAL • IRAQ/KUWAIT 0 • (IRA) 1 ATT GEN//C ADAMS BANKE BTI1 BTI2 CAOFF1 CAOFF2 DFID1 DFID2 ECGD 0 FSA HMT MOD 0 Page 3 DECLASSIFIED Page 4 DECLASSIFED