همر · 07-F-1035 DOCS 01-04

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Jf ..... ... .._.~•---111e•1111,1•- • Rta11ss• wayw111a1t• n•-111• ua · .......... ......_ .... 111.-,., ...... -u • ..._u..,...,. .. ............ a.et nl1hH fW aut.... a• 111 a H-.., 119w Yw. ll!OA!lilUi Iraq: Shi'a Cleric Power Dynamics •ll, 111 Grand Ayatollahs ----------•1 ---------- IRAN . .. --..,:· , ~- • ~_-,' ~~--. -)!b :~- - . Hlilri; •• f n lr, 111 ••• Saun::e of emulation tor Sadr and •bu· Hatlm. Believer in Iranian atyie ~- ,-rM!n. GC baand ::orp. Agenda: :,. in the new a Internal aecurlty, r rqlme mem~ Sadr: Young. I co ••• relying on fllffllly legacy, I ry .•. allenating Nlllor m DRAFT SLCIWI OSDPolicy Ma~h IS, 2004 Iranian Influence in lnq • CIA will lead a discussion on '"Iranian Influence in Iraq" (no paper provided). • We should consider me~-ures to counter Iran's continued violent meddling in Iraq. • Iran is directing an overt and covert campaign to maximize its influence in Iraq. Tactics include political action, propaganda and media, economic aid, exploitation of religious ties, subversion and use of violence through its proxies. - Iran is providing continued support and safe-haven to Al-Qaida and Ansar al-Islam terrorists who are behind some of the attacks against Coalition forces in Iraq. - In the current environment, the Iranians arc confident that through proxies (e.g. Ansar al-Islam, Badr Corps, Hizballah etc.) it can carry out attacks against coalition forces not traceable to Iran. • Up to now we have ignored Iran's activities in Iraq. • We should deter key Iranian organimions who are responsible for directing destabilization activities in Iraq. such as the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) - including its elite Qods Force, by: - Capturing key or senior IRGC Qods officers and/or intelligence operatives and Iran-linked proxy groups. Tightening security at border crossing points between Iran and Iraq. (CJTF claims 7,500 Iranians/day illegally crossing the border; 20-30,000/day during this latest religious holiday). - Closing down Iran's intelligence operations in Iraq. (The U.S. successfully undertook a similar strategy toward Iranian operations in Bosnia in the late 1990s). - Exposing Iran's activities to the media in Iraq, Iran and throughout the region ( especially if any arrests oflRGC and other operatives are made). - Ensure Radio Fania, VOA services and Al-Iraqiah delivers such information. DRAFT SEU&! DRAFT 3£01&1 > • There continues to be a stream of intelligence reporting which suggests Iran is planning to conduct - through proxies - a mass casualty attack against coalition forces in Iraq. • These reports have given us .. strategic warning" of Iran's intentions. However, given Iranian deception and operational security measures, we cannot count on receiving unambiguous tactical warning before an attack. 2 DRAFT @ *** ••••• Thi ••• ••••• ---•--;..~~Page l of 4 RTTCZYOW RUEHGBA02~1 1041728-C'CCC-- RTJEJCMIIA . ZNY CCCCC ZZH R 131728Z APR 04 PM CPA BAGHDAD TO RUEJCJCS/BECDBF WASHDC os,o RUBHC/SECSTATB WASHDC 0575 RHBRNSC/WHITB HOOSE NSC WASSDC 0548 RUBKJCS/CJCS WASHDC RUCAACC/CDJl OSCBNTCOM MCDILL APB FL ROBHAX/AMENBASSY ANICARA 0023 8T •---------.-BAGHDAD 000291 E.O. 12958: DBCL : 04/13/14 TAGS: PRBI,, PGOV, IZ SUBJBCT : CPA OH!il: PUlC OFFICIALS ON IRAN, LINKS WITH TURICEY, MBRGER TALJCS WITH THE KDP ;#;§';"' B! ±£if p pt &LL,! S£irCA LBCR<W FOIi. a SUMMARY ~: - ~ GT SULAIMANIYA OFPICBRS HJ>.D WlDB-RIJlGING OISCOSSIONS ON APRIL 8 AND 9 WITH OMAR P'ATTAH , INTKLLIGENCE CHIBF FOR THE PUX (PATRIOTIC 'IJHION OP ICURDISTAlf. ) AND BARHAM SALIN, PRIMB MINISTBR OP THE KlJRDISTNI ltEGIQNJU. GOVER!IMBNT (st7LAIMANIYA) AND A PtJ!t LEADBR. THB XRY PO:I!ITS MADB BY THE TWO SBNIOR OFFICIALS OP THE OOMltaTING PARTY lfERE s - IRAN IS DRIVING THB UNREST IH SOUTH CBNTRAL IRAQ, BtJT IS SATISPIBD WITH THE STATDS QUO IN THB KORDISH ARBAS ; - THB JttJRDISH LEADERSHIP NOST HAVR A •PLAN a• IN CASE THE BFPORT 'l'O FORM A tnnTBD IRAQ PAILS, ALTHOUGH THB PRBFBRRBD OPTION REMAXNS A 'IJHIFIBO IRAQ AND KURDISH LEADERS ARE ADAMAlfT THAT 1CURDS MOST ROT BB SSBN AS CAUSING SUCH FAILOR£ . THE BEST OPTIOH FOR AN ALTERNATIVE Pt.AN IS Ct.OSER TIES TO TURJCBY; - PUJC-XDP MERGER TALKS ARB NOT GOING WELL; - THE PIQC FORCES lN NORTHERN SULA.IMNUYA GOVBRNORATB ARB DIVIDED, BOT FIGHTING BRTWBBN THE '1'NO FACTIONS IS UNLIJCBLY . li!lfD SOMMARY , 0SD - SBCDBF CABLB DISTRIBtJTION : C5rl> : CCD : '/ CASI.B CH : PILE: SBCDBP : z DBP88C1 L. EXBCSEC 1 / ' x~4:(r!;, OSDP : l. DIA1 OTHER : ~~ A- ,- USDI : PSR SBC: COIIN : ~ ' - .. : :l : ••••• Thi~M ••··~ 4 of 4 B~BMER BT S&:CDBF V:Z ACTION (t1l INPO CHAIRS(*) CHAIRS TESTBBD(*) SBCDlrF-C(lJ DOTB:OSD(*) SBCDBF-C(•) MDA(•) DASD I/O~IS(•) C3I DASDI(*) C3I-DASD-DCIO(•) USOAT:STS(*) ASD:PA-SMTP(*) DIR:PAE-RAM(•) US.DCOMP(•J BSC-SMTP(*) OSDONSIPRDA.(•) +JCP DIAIL COSTOMRR//CBAIRS// +USDP:BSC 1 CJCS V6 ACTION INFO CHAIRMAN DISTIUBtn'IOH RBQ11J:R,B0 (•) SJS-C t•t SJS•C(1) NMCC:CNO(•) CMAS(•) JJf*) CMAS(l) JS(•) J4:LRC(*) JSAMS(*J 2 (V • '7) TOTAL COPIBS REQUIRED 3 ••• Sbf!!MI ~~m•r mrMu.s. COALITfON PROVISIONAL AUTHORITY BAGHDAD ~ 20A~2003 MEMO TO: Paul Wolfowitz, Deputy Secretary of Defense FROM: Paul Bremer, Administrator <• igne4> SUBJECT: Attack on UN in Iraq; Steps in Response This responds to questions posed by a meeting of Deputies in Washington on the attack on the UN headquarters in Baghdad on August 19, 2003. Responses to those questions are provided below. We reviewed our security and intelligence postures and the results of those reviews are also provided in brief below. With regard to the questions, four of the five addressed what the Governing Council (OC) should and could do. RESPONSES TO QUESTIONS POSED BY THE DEPUTIES: What should/can the GC do? I used my regular Wednesday meeting with the Governing Council to get them focused on the need for quick, decisive action in the wake of yesterday' s bombing. I told them that the GC was facing a decisive 12-24 hours in which they had to show the Iraqi people that the Council was prepared for serious action. I proposed six immediate steps, many involving a much more aggressive and coordinated press and information campaign by Council members (interviews, "town BC@MJI 01.81&1 hall" meetings in their districts. convening a meeting of the nation's governors). We have offered full support in all these measures. I tabled a draft statement for them to make which clearly identified the attack as directed against the Iraqi people and the international community. As it emerged from their redrafting, the statement issued calls for the Iraqi people to support and join the Iraqi police force, the New Iraqi Army and the Iraqi Civil Defense Corps. It also calls on f riendJy nations to support the Iraqi people in establishing security and stability. We may be able to use this last phrase as in invitation to countries to send troops to the coalition. How do we get the media message out to the Iraqi people? • Three members of the GC toured the UN site yesterday, and made statements there to the press. • A GC member joined me for interViews with all the Arabic satellite networks and the Iraqi Media Network later yesterday evening. • After a GC meeting today, several members were interviewed by the Arabic press and Iraqi Media Network. • Acting GC President (Ahmed Chalibi) will hold a press conference this afternoon for Iraqi, Arabic, and international media. • Over the next several days. small groups of GC members will visit the UN site each day, accompanied by the Iraqi and Arabic media, much like U.S. officials visited Ground Zero following 9/1 I. • 1be most senior Iraqi Police official (Oen. Ahmed Ibrahim) will hold a press conference within a couple of days. regarding the investigation. • GC members will visit their home cities and hold town hall meetings. • The GC will invite all the governors from across the countty to a meeting in Baghdad. 01!O.&f 91§801 SECURITY AND INTELLIGENCE POSTURES Facility and Personnel Security We have periodic reviews of the force protection plan, policies and measures in place to secure CPA facilities within Baghdad. Immediately after the bombing of the Legation from Jordan, we reviewed all of our force protection arrangements and we reviewed them again today. As a result of these reviews. we found a few areas where upgrades were justified. including an increase in guard persoMel and the installation of additional barriers to further control traffic and serve as blast and sniper shields. Today we also reviewed with CJTF our program to assist foreign legations and missions in providing for their own security. A security team from CENTCOM has been providing assessments on the security needs of foreign missions of Coalition members to those who have requested them. We have convened a meeting for this Friday with the thirty plus foreign missions present in Baghdad. We will offer all missions security surveys of their facilities including improvements that they may wish to make to enhance their security. We will also determine if there a.re additional security measures that we might be able to provide consistent with available resources. This will further enhance and tighten existing arrangements that include established links between a number of foreign missions and US forces located in their neighborhoods. Intelligence Inte1ligence is the cornerstone of our security and we pay a great deal of attention to the quality of the intelligence that we collect and analyze here in addition to the vital intelligence that we receive from Washington (writ large). I reviewed our intelligence structure and capabilities again this morning with the following actions and findings: Ol!i©Mll SLCI&i • I directed the organization of a nucleus that will address the current threat, analytically and operationally.[it ~nsists of CIA, NSA. NlMA, DIA, Military, FBI and local security elements. My particular concern is to have a much more robust counterterrorism capabiiil; J • Separately, I have urged that pending requests that~ Station and Mili~have before their headquarters for additional personnel be met immediately. These requests concenlrate on the area of~ intelligen~d include additional case officers, analysts and qualified debriefers. Arabic language capability is extremely important I • - We also need additional technology that would enable and facilitate the analysis I / ; on the ground of signals intelligence that currently must be sent to Washington and returned before action can be taken. This has been specified through both OGA and ~ litary channels. • We have an urgent need for additional intem>gators so that we can debrief detainees more rapidly. Augmentation of our technological capabilities in this area is also needed as recommended in military channels. In reviewing our intelligence needs~ in particular those of the C~ a general theme emerged: we need to balance the effon now being applied to finding weapons of mass destruction with an equal effort against enemies who are killing our people today. BLCl&ll - ----------- --- ., CCDIWPFIJII t I OFFICE OF THE SECRETARY OF DEFENSE 1000 DEFENSE PENTAGON WASHINGTON DC 20310-1000 INFO MEMO 16 April 2004 MEMORANDUM FOR TIIE DEPUTY SECRET ARY OF DEFENSE From: R<:uben Jcef ., SUBJECT: Oil Revenue Windfall You asked about the windfall of revenue for 2003 and 2004 reaped by major oiV.fuel exporting countries from unexpectedly high petroleum prices. • The OPEC basket target range has been $22-28 perbancl, yet in 2003 the basket averaged $28.08, and in the first quarter of2004 it averaged $30.33. - Saudi and Iraqi prices roughly averaged S 1.40-1.60 below the basket. • We have calculated oil revenue windfalls using DOE fon:casts as the n:venue benchmark and assuming that 2004 prices and exports will maintain the same levels as in the first quarter of 2004. - The numbers include all fuel exports (oil and petrolewn products), and conservatively attribute crude oil prices to the more expensive petroleum product exports. • Revenues in 2004 are projected to be the same or higher than in 2003, but windfalls should be less since forecasters have adjusted to a higher price range begun last year. - The exception ia Iraq due to rising exports. • Saudi Arabia. - Based on reported estimated fuel export revenue for 2003 of $85 B, the Saudis bad revenue windfall of $31 B. CO!!EL •r•:1 LO! a IBIH iWI' I - One leading expert estimates that 2003 revenue neared $9S B, bringing the windfall to $41 B. - 2004 windfall projected to reach $1 S B. • Kuwait: 2003 windfall of $8 B, and 2004 of SS B. • Iran: 2003 and 2004 windfall each of $6 B. • Russia: 2003 windfall of $9 B, and 2004 of S7 B. • For Iraq, it is more instructive to use CPA 's budget as a benchmarlc. - For 2003, the windfall was $2.8 B. For 2004, if export targets are met and prioes maintain ~e same average, a windfall of $7 .4 B. - Under these assumptions, Iraq's 2004 re\'cnue will reach S19.6 B, while CPA projected $12.2 B. DOE forecasts $16.6 B in revenue, yielding a windfall of S4.4 B. • TAB B provides details. COORDINATION: None At1acb.ments: As stated Prepared by: GSPWWRBJE l I ------------------- - --------- - -· - - ··- - ESTIMATED Ol REVBlEWINDFM.L OF llAJOR· EXPORTERS (1Mus an, ii libs dlklnt, (&pit., ndeillllild illllb\blrelsPfldaJI 221 w 1.48 lM t97 5.37 18.7 13 11.8 53.1 11.1 5t2 2.54 24.4 5.7 t.11 5.1 11 2.04 19.0 7.2 UI 15.t 31.2 2.34 242 6.5 5.78 912 9.0 fortcattd FOIIClitd FGIICll1ld ProjldN Pro)edld 2804 Prlcl Eapa,11 RMIIII lalll'IIDI ldiaElpactl .......... RI $25.38 2.40 22.3 $2l86 2.M 27.6 S.3 llaq (pasllnr) $25.43 1M 112 SZl92 1• 11.6 1A Kurit $24.00 1M 17.0 $21.04 2.13 21.6 4,6 w~ SZS.41 1.41 IJ $2llS ll3 kl 14.1 UAE. $27.35 2.22 22.2 $31.11 2.36 26.8 4.6 Ru• 127.58 6.26 63.2 $31.37 8.16 70. 4 12 ,._ Ari111M111il8'fotelautilt-Rlji ............. Qf •• ,. _ ftllClfidl/ld,rj,I--A,,IQllia··•r.d01la"'9 SIUlfml...,.,.oiF.-8-lldcaNrJ-- ntl_..•dlrMWba'II .. a;J1MN111i._cwat,glid.,Wllllhcdllfmat!OM,-Arltlllld,_ i-: _,~ .. .., ......... @61 l! ibbi ii LIIE OFFICE OF THE SECRETARY OF DEFENSE 1000 DEFENSE PENTAGON WASHINGTON DC 20310°1000 INFO MEMO COALITION PAOIIISION,t,L AUTHORITY REPRESENTATM: 16 April 2004 MEMORANDUM FOR THE DEPUTY SECRETARY OF DEFENSE From: RcubenJeef SUBJECT: Oil Revenue Windfall You asked about the windfall of revenue for 2003 and 2004 reaped by major oil/fuel exporting countries from unexpectedly high petroleum prices. • The OPEC basket target range bas been S22-28 per barrel, yet in 2003 the basket averaged $28.08, and in 'the first quarter of 2004 it averaged $30.33. - Saudi and Iraqi prices roughly avenged $1.40-1.60 below the basket. • We have calculated oil revenue windfalls using DOE forecasts as the revenue benchmark and assuming that 2004 prices and exports will maintain the same levels as in the first quarter of 2004. The numbers include all fuel exports (oil and petroleum products), and conservatively attribute crude oil prices to the more expensive petrolemn product exports. • Revenues in 2004 are projected to be the same or higher than in 2003, but windfalls should be less since forecasters have adjusted to a higher price range begun last year. - The exception is Iraq due to rising exports. • Saudi Arabia. - Based on reported estimated fuel export revenue for 2003 of $85 B, the Saudis bad revenue windfall of $31 B. Cb.ts £521 I 111!2 18fiPIPFDZi t I - One leading expert estimates that 2003 revenue neared $95 B, bringing the windfall to $41 8. - 2004 windfall projected to reach SIS B. • Kuwait: 2003 windfall of $8 B, and 2004 of $5 B. • Iran: 2003 and 2004 windfall each of $6 B. • Russia: 2003 windfall ofS9 B, and 2004 of$7 B. • For Iraq, it is more instructive to use CPA's budget as a benchmark. - For 2003. the windfall was $2.8 B. - For 2004, if export targets are met and prices maintain ~e same average, a windfall of$7.4 B. - Under these assumptions, Iraq's 2004 revenue will reach $19.6 B, while CPA projected $12.2 B. - DOE forecasts $16.6 8 in revenue, yielding a windfall of$4.4 B. • TAB B provides details. COORDINATION: None Attachments: As stated Prepared by! K6) taro 1nm e I z bill! ~-- -~ - -- ------------------ --·- ---- -- @NIPIKlltL ESTIMAlB> Ol REVENUE WINlfALL OF MAJOR EXPORTERS (ReYeflles nil 16mct•t. l&,Jits n dineied nm lnlspar my) 217 D.55 1.48 SM 1.97 5.37 18.1 2.3 11.8 53.8 17.7 51.2 2.54 24A 5.7 l91 5.1 2J 2.()4 19.0 7 . 2 IJI l5J 31.Z 2.34 24.2 6 . 5 S.76 8J.2 9.0 FGl'IClltld 2004 Plicl Aft SU ~.., $25.43 Kuwlll $24.66 SaudlMllia $2141 1W. $21,35 Auala $27. 58 forecaul fJPn 2.40 , .. 1.88 7.1 212 6.26 Foncasfld RMu 22.3 12.2 17.0 19.9 22.2 632 ,..,_ $28.86 $3.92 $28~ $21.95 $a\.11 $31.37 ~ l'nljlctN lcW&pGltl ----Nndlal 2.64 27.6 5.3 1M 1U 1A 2.13 21.6 4.6 U3 Ml 1U 2.36 26,8 4.6 6.16 70.4 7.2 bl: ,...._,,..,,,,., .......... Gt~- ""11,...ilD4tril-•-1apta;,i,_,G1t~h111QH. itll•IMld·•-•llliini Slidml--111F.-1illlad-dllllllf .. n; ......... ~,.. Qf Dlf ,_.lr_,11t.,.,9'0f WlaaflH1l11111fan r/lQOl-lrfl,adflt ,- •