06-F-0803 Post UNSCR Coalition Strategy 21 OCT 03

· - -- --- ® -••••1111m111 Post UNSCR Coalition Strategy 21Oct03 SECRET ----- --··· Coalition Forces Albania Australia Azerbaijan Bulgaria Czech Rep Denmark Dom Rep El Salvador Estonia Georgia Honduras Hungary Italy Kazakhstan Korea Latvia Lithuania I 33 72 Macedonia 31 287 Moldova 56 151 Mongolia 173 475 Netherlands 1,072 271 New Zealand 55 345 Nicaragua 113 304 Norway 134 360 Philippines 88 43 Poland 2,483 70 Portugal 3 372 Romania 733 299 Slovakia 79 2,333 Spain 1,120 29 Thailand 447 686 Ukraine 1,649 179 UK 9,227 98 Negotiating potential contributions (sizes TBDl: •Pakistan (Division) •Turkey (Division) •India (Division) •Bangladesh (Brigade) •Fiji (Batbllon) •Nepal (Battalion) •Morocco (Batullon) •Djibouti {Battalion) •Tonga (Platoon) •Croatia (Platoon) •Bosnia-Herzegovina (Pit+) •Japan (Company+) 0 •Greece 14 ·Uzbekistan (Company+) •Koru (DIV) Stability Contributors-OIF --·••1111111111 US Forces= 132,698 J Iraqi Forces Police 54,973 Facility Prot. SVC Border Guards Civil Defense Corps New Iraqi Anny 18,747 6,441 4,676 693 Total on Duty= 85,530 OVERALL SECURITY FORCE BREAKDOWN !Total Forces = 242,0651 O Coalition Forces O Iraqi Forces O US Forces 47 Countries Potentially Supporting Iraqi Stability Operations AS OF 190500ZOCT03 SECRET MND-SE (UK) 1 X UK MECH BOE 1 XUK LOG BOE 1 X CZE MP PLT 1 X NZ ENG PLT 1 X DNK INF BN (-) 1 X LTU INF PLT 1 XNOR ENG CO 1 X ITA POLICE BN 1 X ITA MECH IN BN 1 X ITA ENG RGT 1 X ROM INF BN 1 X ROM MP CO 1 X NL MARINE BN tff.ftill)~ CZECH HOSPITAL CENTCOM Requirements --•••m11m111 The priority for Operation Iraqi Freedom stability force contributions remains as follows: • A division size force to fill the MND-North requirement • A division (-)size force to enhance coalition capabilities in central and western Iraq. • A brigade or greater sized force to sustain the rotation of forces in Polish I UK led MNDs • Combat Service I Combat Service Support (Engineers, Transporters, Military Police, etc.) units to support OIF II force rotation concept As of 20 Oct 03 From 26 Aug Deputies Brief: A Prop osed Priorities for Stability Co11tributions --------·----··••11 1. Multi•National Division Nol1h: ·r;; I P~akiS~ta!!fn~w l ~Moroc~c~o ~II-- · Aa:eplatlle for~ in the Nol1h L!: !'IQli! • Wiiing to partlopate -..thout adcHonal Interests 11«1 10 Iraq 2. Stability forces to thicken coalition capabilities In central and western Iraq: Turkey -----,(bX 1) Bangladesh 3. Stability forces to sustain rotJtlon of forces in Polish I UK led MND's: Turtcey Bangladesh Recommendation: ·I Pursue Pakis1an as the priorily for political and f11ancial engagement I • Qe..link GoT expectations for action againSt PKK I KADEK from stability force disaJssions. 6 L----------' SECRET · ------------------------ - - - --------- - --- ---------- ---------- ------ ~~otential Employment of International Contributions -••••m11m111 Turkish Division (1 OK) Turkey into the 31D and /or 82 ABN DIV AO (west of Baghdad) 3rd Multi- ~::!_.~~m~-;J national Division (10K) - Korea - Pakistan - India (b)(1) Bangladesh Brigade (3K) Bangladeshi forces could deploy in 82 ABN DIV sector Command and Control Division level contributions will be employed in adjusted portion of US sector reporting to CJTF-7. Separate brigades will be employed in existing US sector reporting to US Division. All work for CJTF-7 or in I under a US Division SECRET -------------------------·----·----- . ----.. ' . - Post UNSCR -Assessment --·••1111111111 The UN resolution by itself is not sufficient to entice any of the following countries to contribute forces to OIF. Large Contributions - Brigade up to Division • Korea - UNSCR increased public opinion regarding ROK participation from -30° /o to - 70%. ROK government announced 18 OCT that it is prepared "in principle" to send additional forces to Iraq to "support the establishment of peace in Iraq and its rapid post-war reconstruction." Exact size, composition, and timing of this dispatch will be determined by a number of factors to include consultations with the US. Survey teams to be dispatched to Washington, Tampa, and Baghdad. • Pakistan - Musharraf wants GC welcome, Muslim support, and possibly other financial incentives (F-16s, stipend). • India - Public comments oppose participation. • Turkey - Has articulated a number of requests, including a "detailed" military MOU, 1 l< b>< > I representation in CPA, and a US statement on Political Vision for Iraq • Bangladesh - GOB has stated it will only contribute troops to a "blue-helmet" operation; not clear whether UN mandate is sufficient, or whether UN salaries will still be an issue. r.•> j · • Russia - Post - UNSCR: Publicly stated "No Troops" • Germany - Post - UNSCR: Publicly stated "No Troops" . May provide police trainers • France - Post - UNSCR: Publicly stated "No Troops" . May provide police or military trainers. SECRET CS/CSS Coalition Contributions for OIF II --·••111111111 Coalition Contributions that would fill a currently unsourced requirement: - • 1 X Assault/Air Assault Aviation Battalion (266) •2 X Cargo Transfer Companies (594) •1 x Laundry and Shower Company (21 O) •11 X Military Police Companies* (2002) •1 X Medium Lift Aviation Company (261) ·1 X Bridge Company (183) r------:-----__..:._-~ .__._ ___ ...__Approx. 3516 personnel J Approx. 8189 personnel total I Coalition Contributions that would reduce the stress on US units: •7 X Light/Medium Truck Companies (1169) •1 X Cargo Truck Company (169) •1 X Medium Truck Company (PLS*) (142) •2 X Engineer Utilities Teams (112) •1 X Firefighting Team (6) •7 X Water Transport Teams (Fire Fighting) (14) •1 X Engineer Construction Group (161) •2 X Combat Heavy Engineer Battalions 1230) •1 X Combat Heavy Engineer Company (141) •2 X Law and Order Detachments (142) •4 X Military Police C2, Internment/Resettlement Detachments (564) •1 X Facilities Engineer Team (80) •1 X Medium Lift Aviation Company (261) •1 X Heavy Equipment Transport Company (299) •1 x Bridge Company (183) I --------•1 Approx 4673 personnel *JS J3 is assessing MP Co requirement to see what must be done by MP and what can be done by any trained unit (non-specific type) SECRET --- --- -----------·-·- . - - Post UNSCR -Assessment --·••111111111 Small or Service Support Contributions - Battalion or Smaller • Japan - Offering C-130's and Water Purification/Transportion/Electric Generation Units. • Bosnia - Offering 1 Transportation Company. Requires funding. • Croatia - Offering a SOF Platoon & Intel section. Pending Parliamentary approval expected Nov/Dec 03. • Tonga - Offering Infantry Pit. Deploy under U.S. command and control. Require equipment & funding. • Fiji - Offering Infantry Battalion. Require equipment and funding (salaries) • Nepal - Potential offer - 1 Infantry Co. and an EOD team • Morocco - Do not have good idea of requirements (and resulting costs), as Morocco has not yet engaged in mil-mil discussions with CENTCOM. Not clear whether UNSCR provides necessary political cover. • Greece - UNSCR will make it possible for Greece to follow through on its limited offer. • Austria - May require "blue-helmet" operation. • Argentina - Even with a UN mandate, Argentina will require U.S. commitment to pay likely significant expenses. There are also GOA political obstacles. • Finland - Likely to only be able to provide small numbers (though high quality) of troops. • Paraguay- Possible offer, but high financial costs and GOP Congressional approval is necessary. UN resolution removes some political hurdles, although Congressional vote will depend on details and support. • Sweden - Senior MFA officials have reported that Sweden would require an adequate UN mandate to contribute troops to Iraq, but even with such a mandate, current Swedish peacekeeping troop commitments are already taxing its capabilities SECRET Post UNSCR - Way Ahead --·••1111111111 • Determine level of GC involvement • Review financial requirements - Develop by country lift & sustainment funding estimates - Develop funding sources to meet equipment requirements • Determine engagement strategy - Level of approach - Timing • Re-address remaining red lines if required - UN salaries - Nations previously ruled out (Germany, France, Russia) SECRET ·--·--------- --------- .. . . --·••111111111 BACKUPS SECRET . . AFGHANISTAN •Afghanistan (7 4) •Greece (119) •Belgium (229) •Ireland (6) •Canada (1359) •Jordan (182) •Croatia (36) •Luxembourg (9) •Egypt (66) •Sweden (35) •Finland (33) •Switzerland (1) •France (727) •Turkey (139) •Germany (1526) •UAE (110) Contribution Totals Afah Ira a Total us 9,579 132,698 142,277 Coal 7,029 23.837 30 866 Total 16.608 156.535 173.143 Stability Contributors-Afghanistan & Iraq --·••111111111 •Albania (22/72) •Lithuania (41/98) •Azerbaijan (23/151)•Macedonia (11/31) •Bulgaria (70/475) •Netherlands (28/1072) •Czech Rep (3/271) ·New Zealand (113/55) •Denmark (59/345) •Norway (98/134) •Estonia (16/43) •Poland (97/2483) •Hungary (15/299) •Romania (465/733) •Italy (462/2333) •Slovakia (40/79) •Korea (189/686) •Spain (118/1120) •Latvia (9/179) •UK (499/9227) •U.S. (9,579/132,698) 0 SUB TOTAL= 11,957/152,584 •Australia (287) •Mongolia (173) •Dom Rep (304) •Nicaragua (113) •El Salvador (360) •Philippines (88) •Georgia (70) i •Portugal (3) •Honduras (372) · •Thailand (447) · •Kazakhstan (29)-: •Ukraine (1649) •Moldova (56) 50 Countries Supporting Afghanistan & Iraq Stability and Humanitarian Relief AS OF 190500ZOCT03 SECRET . . Stability Contributors-Afghanistan & Iraq --• ••1111111111 -------'I DIPLOMATIC REENGAGEMENT STRATEGY POST-UNSCR Large Force Contributors: •Pakistan • Bangladesh • India •Ethiopia Small Contributors or Countries with Niche Capabilities: •Morocco •Paraguay •Argentina •Finland ·Greece •Slovenia ·Sweden •Senegal ______ _.., ONGOING DISCUSSIONS (NOT TIED TO UNSCR) to-I ----- Large Force Contributors: •Korea •Turkey •Fiji •Nepal Small Contributors or Countries with Niche Capabilities: •Armenia • Bosnia-Herzegovina •Djibouti • Uzbekistan IN DISCUSSION WITH POLES I MAY NEED TO DE-CONFLICT •Austria •Chile •Croatia ·Japan •Malaysia • Switzerland •Tonga SECRET ----·· ·